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Forward-looking versus backward-looking Taylor rules

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Author Info
Charles T. Carlstrom
Timothy S. Fuerst

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Abstract

This paper analyzes the restrictions necessary to ensure that the policy rule used by the central bank does not introduce real indeterminacy into the economy. It conducts this analysis in a flexible price economy and a sticky price model. A robust conclusion is that to ensure determinacy, the monetary authority should follow a backward-looking rule where the nominal interest rate responds aggressively to past inflation rates.

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File URL: http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/workpaper/2000/Wp0009.pdf
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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland in its series Working Paper with number 0009.

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Length: 1-30
Date of creation: 2000
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcwp:0009

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Keywords: Monetary policy;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," CEPR Discussion Papers 1908, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Bernanke, Ben S & Woodford, Michael, 1997. "Inflation Forecasts and Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(4), pages 653-84, November.
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  3. Bennett T. McCallum, 1995. "A Semi-Classical Model of Price Level Adjustment," NBER Working Papers 4706, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Charles Carlstrom & Timothy Fuerst, 2000. "Optimal Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy: A General Equilibrium Analysis," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 70, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Taylor, John B, 1980. "Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 1-23, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. McCallum, Bennett T., 1981. "Price level determinacy with an interest rate policy rule and rational expectations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 319-329. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst, 1998. "Price-level and interest-rate targeting in a model with sticky prices," Working Paper 9819, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
  9. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst, 2001. "Real Indeterminacy in Monetary Models with Nominal Interest Rate Distortions," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 4(4), pages 767-789, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst, 2001. "Timing and real indeterminacy in monetary models," Working Paper 9910R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Fischer, Stanley, 1977. "Long-Term Contracts, Rational Expectations, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(1), pages 191-205, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 1998. "Price Level Determinacy and Monetary Policy under a Balanced-Budget Requirement," Departmental Working Papers 199833, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  14. William Kerr & Robert G. King, 1996. "Limits on interest rate rules in the IS model," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Spr, pages 47-75. [Downloadable!]
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