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Capital and macroeconomic instability in a discrete-time model with forward-looking interest rate rules

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  • Kevin X. D. Huang
  • Qinglai Meng

Abstract

The authors establish the necessary and sufficient conditions for local real determinacy in a discrete-time production economy with monopolistic competition and a quadratic price adjustment cost under forward-looking policy rules, for the case where capital is in exogenously fixed supply and the case with endogenous capital accumulation. Using these conditions, they show that (i) indeterminacy is more likely to occur with a greater share of payment to capital in value-added production cost; (ii) indeterminacy can be more or less likely to occur with constant capital than with variable capital; (iii) indeterminacy is more likely to occur when prices are modelled as jump variables than as predetermined variables; (iv) indeterminacy is less likely to occur with a greater degree of steady-state monopolistic distortions; and (v) indeterminacy is less likely to occur with a greater degree of price stickiness or with a higher steady-state inflation rate. In contrast to some existing research, the authors' analysis indicates that capital tends to lead to macroeconomic instability by affecting firms' pricing behavior in product markets rather than households' arbitrage activity in asset markets even under forward-looking policy rules.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia in its series Working Papers with number 07-4.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedpwp:07-4

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Keywords: Capital ; Interest rates;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Tommy Sveen & Lutz Weinke, 2010. "The Taylor Principle in a medium-scale macroeconomic model," Working Paper 2010/09, Norges Bank.
  2. Kevin X.D. Huang & Qinglai Meng, 2007. "Distance to Frontier and the Big Swings of the Unemployment Rate: What Room is Left for Monetary Policy?," Kiel Working Papers 1348, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  3. Kurozumi, Takushi & Van Zandweghe, Willem, 2008. "Investment, interest rate policy, and equilibrium stability," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1489-1516, May.
  4. Sosunov, Kirill & Khramov, Vadim, 2008. "Monetary policy rules and indterminacy," MPRA Paper 11996, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Huang, Kevin X.D. & Meng, Qinglai & Xue, Jianpo, 2009. "Is forward-looking inflation targeting destabilizing? The role of policy's response to current output under endogenous investment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 409-430, February.
  6. Chryssi Giannitsarou & Alexia Anagnostopoulos, 2005. "Modeling Time and Macroeconomic Dynamics," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 60, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  7. Vadim Khramov, 2012. "Assessing DSGE Models with Capital Accumulation and Indeterminacy," IMF Working Papers 12/83, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Takushi Kurozumi & Willem Van Zandweghe, 2011. "Determinacy under Inflation Targeting Interest Rate Policy in a Sticky Price Model with Investment (and Labor Bargaining)," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(5), pages 1019-1033, 08.

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