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Real indeterminacy in monetary models with nominal interest rate distortions: the problem with inflation targets

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Charles T. Carlstrom
Timothy S. Fuerst

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Abstract

This paper demonstrates that in a standard monetary model with a cash-in-advance constraint on consumption there exists real indeterminacy whenever the nominal interest rate moves too closely with the real rate. A particular example of such a policy is an inflation rate target. This is not a knife-edge result. The conclusion is robust to a wide range of calibrations and to a monetary environment that allows for endogenous velocity.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland in its series Working Paper with number 9818R.

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Length: 1-32
Date of creation: 2001
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcwp:9818

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Keywords: Monetary policy ; Inflation (Finance);

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  1. Calvo, Guillermo A, 1979. "On Models of Money and Perfect Foresight," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 20(1), pages 83-103, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Matsuyama, Kiminori, 1991. "Endogenous Price Fluctuations in an Optimizing Model of a Monetary Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1617-31, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst, 1995. "Interest rate rules vs. money growth rules: a welfare comparison in a cash-in-advance economy," Working Paper 9504, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Marshall, David A, 1992. " Inflation and Asset Returns in a Monetary Economy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1315-42, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Charles Carlstrom & Timothy Fuerst, 2000. "Optimal Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy: A General Equilibrium Analysis," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 70, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Brock, William A., 1975. "A simple perfect foresight monetary model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 133-150, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. McCallum, Bennett T., 1981. "Price level determinacy with an interest rate policy rule and rational expectations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 319-329. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 1995. "Balanced-budget rules, distortionary taxes, and aggregate instability," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 95-44, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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  9. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Speculative Hyperinflations in Maximizing Models: Can We Rule Them Out?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 675-87, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Carlstrom, Charles T. & Fuerst, Timothy S., 2001. "Timing and real indeterminacy in monetary models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 285-298, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Matsuyama, Kiminori, 1990. "Sunspot equilibria (rational bubbles) in a model of money-in-the-utility-function," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 137-144, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. William T. Gavin & Alan C. Stockman, 1992. "A price objective for monetary policy," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Apr 1. [Downloadable!]
  14. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst, 2000. "Money growth rules and price level determinacy," Working Paper 0010, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules And Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence And Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Benhabib, J. & Schmitt-Grohe, S. & Uribe, M., 1998. "Monetary Policy and Multiple Equilibria," Working Papers 98-02, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Woodford, Michael, 1994. "Monetary Policy and Price Level Determinacy in a Cash-in-Advance Economy," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 345-80.
  18. Feenstra, Robert C., 1986. "Functional equivalence between liquidity costs and the utility of money," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 271-291, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Lucas, Robert E, Jr & Stokey, Nancy L, 1987. "Money and Interest in a Cash-in-Advance Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 491-513, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Marvin Goodfriend & Robert G. King, 1998. "The new neoclassical synthesis and the role of monetary policy," Working Paper 98-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. [Downloadable!]
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  21. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-11, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Julio Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1997. "An Optimization-Based Econometric Framework for the Evaluation of Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 297-361 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  23. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 1998. "Price Level Determinacy and Monetary Policy under a Balanced-Budget Requirement," Departmental Working Papers 199833, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  24. William Kerr & Robert G. King, 1996. "Limits on interest rate rules in the IS model," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Spr, pages 47-75. [Downloadable!]
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