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Money Growth Monitoring and the Taylor Rule

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Lawrence J. Christiano
Massimo Rostagno

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Abstract

Using a series of examples, we review the various ways in which a monetary policy characterized by the Taylor rule can inject volatility into the economy. In the examples, a particular modification to the Taylor rule can reduce or even entirely eliminate the problems. Under the modified policy, the central bank monitors the money growth rate and commits to abandoning the Taylor rule in favor of a money growth rule in case money growth passes outside a particular monitoring range.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 8539.

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Date of creation: Oct 2001
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:8539

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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  1. David Longworth, 2003. "Money in the Bank (of Canada)," Technical Reports 93, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  2. Jess Benhabib & Stefano Eusepi, 2005. "The design of monetary and fiscal policy: a global perspective," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Albert Jaeger, 2003. "The ECB's Money Pillar: An Assessment," IMF Working Papers 03/82, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  4. Fiorella De Fiore & Zheng Liu, 2003. "Openness and Equilibrium Determinacy Under Interest Rate Rules," Emory Economics 0310, Department of Economics, Emory University (Atlanta). [Downloadable!]
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  5. Jess Benhabib & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2003. "Backward-Looking Interest-Rate Rules, Interest-Rate Smoothing, and Macroeconomic Instability," Departmental Working Papers 200304, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Ramdane Djoudad & Céline Gauthier, 2003. "A Small Dynamic Hybrid Model for the Euro Area," Working Papers 03-19, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  7. Lawrence Christiano & Roberto Motto & Massimo Rostagno, 2007. "Two Reasons Why Money and Credit May be Useful in Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 13502, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Stefano Eusepi, 2005. "Comparing forecast-based and backward-looking Taylor rules: a "global" analysis," Staff Reports 198, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  9. Ragna Alstadheim & Dale W. Henderson, 2004. "Price-level determinacy, lower bounds on the nominal interest rate, and liquidity traps," International Finance Discussion Papers 795, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  10. Marco Airaudo & Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2005. "Interest rate rules, endogenous cycles, and chaotic dynamics in open economies," International Finance Discussion Papers 849, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  11. Adao, Bernardino & Correia, Maria Isabel Horta & Teles, Pedro, 2005. "Monetary Policy with Single Instrument Feedback Rules," CEPR Discussion Papers 4948, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Jess Benhabib & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2004. "Chaotic Interest Rate Rules: Expanded Version," NBER Working Papers 10272, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Alexander L. Wolman & Elise A. Couper, 2003. "Potential consequences of linear approximation in economics," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Win, pages 51-67. [Downloadable!]
  14. Berger, Helge & Österholm, Pär, 2007. "Does Money Growth Granger-Cause Inflation in the Euro Area? Evidence from Out-of-Sample Forecasts Using Bayesian VARs," Working Paper Series 2007:30, Uppsala University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Bernardino Adão & Isabel Correia & Pedro Teles, 2004. "Monetary policy with state contingent interest rates," Working Paper Series WP-04-26, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  16. Leon, Costas, 2006. "The Taylor rule: can it be supported by the data?," MPRA Paper 1650, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  17. Mark Taylor & Emmanuel Davradakis, 2006. "Interest Rate Setting and Inflation Targeting: Evidence of a Nonlinear Taylor Rule for the United Kingdom," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 10(4), pages 1359-1359. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Vitor Gaspar & Anil K. Kashyap, 2006. "Stability First: Reflections Inspired by Otmar Issing's Success as the ECB's Chief Economist," NBER Working Papers 12277, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Gerberding, Christina & Seitz, Franz & Worms, Andreas, 2007. "Money-based interest rate rules: lessons from German data," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,06, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  20. Jess Benhabib & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2001. "Chaotic Interest Rate Rules," Departmental Working Papers 200109, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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