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Interest rate rules, endogenous cycles, and chaotic dynamics in open economies

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  • Airaudo, Marco
  • Zanna, Luis-Felipe

Abstract

We present an extensive analysis of the consequences for global equilibrium determinacy in flexible-price open economies of implementing active interest rate rules, i.e., monetary rules where the nominal interest rate responds more than proportionally to inflation. We show that conditions under which these rules generate aggregate instability by inducing liquidity traps, endogenous cycles, and chaotic dynamics depend on specific characteristics of open economies. In particular, rules that respond to expected future inflation are more prone to induce endogenous cyclical and chaotic dynamics the more open the economy to trade.

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  • Airaudo, Marco & Zanna, Luis-Felipe, 2012. "Interest rate rules, endogenous cycles, and chaotic dynamics in open economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 1566-1584.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:36:y:2012:i:10:p:1566-1584
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2012.06.003
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    Cited by:

    1. Barnett, William A. & Eryilmaz, Unal, 2016. "An Analytical And Numerical Search For Bifurcations In Open Economy New Keynesian Models," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(2), pages 482-503, March.
    2. Barnett, William A. & Bella, Giovanni & Ghosh, Taniya & Mattana, Paolo & Venturi, Beatrice, 2022. "Is policy causing chaos in the United Kingdom?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    3. Airaudo, Marco & Zanna, Luis-Felipe, 2012. "Interest rate rules, endogenous cycles, and chaotic dynamics in open economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 1566-1584.
    4. William, Barnett & Hu, Jingxian, 2017. "Capital Control, Exchange Rate Regime, and Monetary Policy: Indeterminacy and Bifurcation," MPRA Paper 81450, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Marco Airaudo, 2017. "Complex stock price dynamics under Max Weber’s spirit of capitalism hypothesis," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 64(1), pages 47-73, June.
    6. Calvert Jump, Robert & Hommes, Cars & Levine, Paul, 2019. "Learning, heterogeneity, and complexity in the New Keynesian model," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 446-470.
    7. Fujisaki, Seiya, 2013. "Taylor rules and equilibrium determinacy in a two-country model with non-traded goods," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 597-603.
    8. Barnett, William & Bella, Giovanni & Ghosh, Taniya & Mattana, Paolo & Venturi, Beatrice, 2021. "Chaos in the UK New Keynesian Macroeconomy," MPRA Paper 109820, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Le Riche, Antoine & Magris, Francesco & Parent, Antoine, 2017. "Liquidity Trap and stability of Taylor rules," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 16-27.
    10. Chang Wen-ya & Tsai Hsueh-fang & Chang Juin-jen & Lin Hsieh-yu, 2018. "Interest rate rules and equilibrium (in)determinacy in a small open economy: the role of internationally traded capital," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 18(2), pages 1-18, June.
    11. Fujisaki, Seiya, 2012. "Interest Rate Control Rules and Macroeconomic Stability in a Heterogeneous Two-Country Model," MPRA Paper 37017, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Airaudo, Marco, 2014. "Currency substitution, risk premia and the Taylor principle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 202-217.
    13. Fujisaki, Seiya, 2012. "Taylor rules and equilibrium determinacy in a two-country model with non-traded goods," MPRA Paper 40023, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Airaudo, Marco, 2012. "Endogenous Dollarization, Sovereign Risk Premia and the Taylor Principle," School of Economics Working Paper Series 2012-11, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Small open economy; Interest rate rules; Taylor rules; Multiple equilibria; Chaos and endogenous fluctuations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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