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Seven faces of "the peril"

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Author Info

  • James Bullard

Abstract

In this paper the author discusses the possibility that the U.S. economy may become enmeshed in a Japanese-style deflationary outcome within the next several years. To frame the discussion, the author relies on an analysis that emphasizes two possible long-run steady states for the economy: one that is consistent with monetary policy as it has typically been implemented in the United States in recent years and one that is consistent with the low nominal interest rate, deflationary regime observed in Japan during the same period. The data considered seem to be quite consistent with the two steady-state possibilities. The author describes and critiques seven stories that are told in monetary policy circles regarding this analysis and emphasizes two main conclusions: (i) The Federal Open Market Committee's "extended period" language may be increasing the probability of a Japanese-style outcome for the United States and (ii), on balance, the U.S. quantitative easing program offers the best tool to avoid such an outcome.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its journal Review.

Volume (Year): (2010)
Issue (Month): Sep ()
Pages: 339-352

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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlrv:y:2010:i:sep:p:339-352:n:v.92no.5

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Related research

Keywords: Monetary policy - United States ; Deflation (Finance) - Japan ; Japan;

References

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  1. Daniel L. Thornton, 2007. "The lower and upper bounds of the Federal Open Market Committee's long-run inflation objective," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 183-194.
  2. George Evans & Eran Guse & Seppo Honkapohja, 2007. "Liquidity Traps, Learning and Stagnation," Kiel Working Papers 1341, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  3. Eusepi, Stefano, 2007. "Learnability and monetary policy: A global perspective," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1115-1131, May.
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Citations

Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. On the perils of Taylor rules
    by David Andolfatto in MacroMania on 2012-12-28 20:20:00
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Cited by:
  1. Tim Hursey & Alexander L. Wolman, 2010. "Monetary policy and global equilibria in a production economy," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue 4Q, pages 317-337.
  2. Daniel L. Thornton, 2010. "Which comes first: inflation or the FOMC's funds rate target?," Economic Synopses, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  3. William T. Gavin & Benjamin D. Keen, 2012. "U.S. monetary policy: a view from macro theory," Working Papers 2012-019, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  4. Lee C. Spector & Courtenay C. Stone, 2010. "Unlikely Estimates of the Ex Ante Real Interest Rate: Another Dismal Performance from the Dismal Science1," Working Papers 201010, Ball State University, Department of Economics, revised Jan 2011.
  5. Cizkowicz, Piotr & Rzonca, Andrzej, 2011. "Interest rates close to zero, post-crisis restructuring and natural interest rate," MPRA Paper 36989, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Bart Hobijn & Colin Gardiner, 2010. "The breadth of disinflation," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Dec 6.
  7. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé & Martín Uribe, 2010. "Liquidity Traps: An Interest-Rate-Based Exit Strategy," NBER Working Papers 16514, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Eric M. Leeper, 2010. "Monetary Science, Fiscal Alchemy," NBER Working Papers 16510, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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