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Global dynamics at the zero lower bound

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  • William T. Gavin
  • Benjamin D. Keen
  • Alexander Richter
  • Nathaniel Throckmorton

Abstract

This article presents global solutions to standard New Keynesian models to show how economic dynamics change when the nominal interest rate is constrained at its zero lower bound (ZLB). We focus on the canonical New Keynesian model without capital, but we also study the model with capital, with and without investment adjustment costs. Our solution method emphasizes accuracy to capture the expectational effects of hitting the ZLB and returning to a positive interest rate. We find that the response to a technology shock has perverse consequences when the ZLB binds, even when a discount factor shock drives the interest rate to zero. Although we do not model the large scale asset purchases used by the Fed since 2009, our results suggest that the economy may have trouble recovering if the interest rate remains at zero. Given the perverse dynamics at the ZLB, we evaluate how monetary policy affects the likelihood of encountering the ZLB. We find that the probability of hitting the ZLB depends importantly on the monetary policy rule. A policy rule based on a dual mandate, such as the one proposed by Taylor (1993), is more likely to cause ZLB events when the central bank places greater emphasis on the output gap.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its series Working Papers with number 2013-007.

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Date of creation: 2013
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2013-007

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Keywords: Monetary policy ; Bonds;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Yasuo Hirose & Atsushi Inoue, 2013. "Zero Lower Bound and Parameter Bias in an Estimated DSGE Model," Departmental Working Papers 1306, Southern Methodist University, Department of Economics.
  2. Campbell Leith & Ding Liu, 2014. "The in‡flation bias under Calvo and Rotemberg pricing," Working Papers 2014_06, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
  3. Gavin, William T. & Keen, Benjamin D. & Richter, Alexander & Throckmorton, Nathaniel, 2013. "The stimulative effect of forward guidance," Working Papers 2013-38, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 30 Apr 2014.
  4. Gauti Eggertsson & Andrea Ferrero & Andrea Raffo, 2013. "Can structural reforms help Europe?," International Finance Discussion Papers 1092, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  5. Viktors Ajevskis, 2013. "Non-Local Solutions to Dynamic Equilibrium Models: the Approximate Stable Manifolds Approach," Working Papers 2013/03, Latvijas Banka.
  6. Plante, Michael D. & Richter, Alexander & Throckmorton, Nathaniel, 2014. "The zero lower bound and endogenous uncertainty," Working Papers 1405, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  7. Yi Wen, 2013. "Evaluating unconventional monetary policies -why aren’t they more effective?," Working Papers 2013-028, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  8. Maria Lucia Florez-Jimenez & Julian A. Parra-Polania, 2014. "Forward guidance with an escape clause: When half a promise is better than a full one," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 011143, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  9. Alexander W. Richter & Nathaniel A. Throckmorton, 2013. "The Zero Lower Bound: Frequency, Duration, and Determinacy," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2013-16, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
  10. Todd B. Walker & Alexander W. Richter & Nathaniel A. Throckmorton, 2014. "Accuracy, Speed and Robustness of Policy Function Iteration," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2014-08, Department of Economics, Auburn University.

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