Escaping the Great Recession
AbstractWhile high uncertainty is an inherent implication of the economy entering the zero lower bound, deflation is not, because agents are likely to be uncertain about the way policymakers will deal with the large stock of debt arising from a severe recession. We draw this conclusion based on a new-Keynesian model in which the monetary/fiscal policy mix can change over time and zero-lower-bound episodes are recurrent. Given that policymakers’ behavior is constrained at the zero lower bound, beliefs about the exit strategy play a key role. Announcing a period of austerity is detrimental in the short run, but it preserves macroeconomic stability in the long run. A large recession can be avoided by abandoning fiscal discipline, but this results in a sharp increase in macroeconomic instability once the economy is out of the recession. Contradictory announcements by the fiscal and monetary authorities can lead to high inflation and large output losses. The policy trade-off can be resolved by committing to inflate away only the portion of debt resulting from an unusually large recession.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Duke University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 13-19.
Date of creation: 2013
Date of revision:
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Monetary and fiscal policy interaction; Markov-switching DSGE models; uncertainty; shock-specific policy rules; zero lower bound;
Other versions of this item:
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
- E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
- D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search, Learning, and Information
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-10-02 (All new papers)
- NEP-MAC-2013-10-02 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2013-10-02 (Monetary Economics)
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- Francesco Bianchi & Leonardo Melosi, 2013.
"Dormant Shocks and Fiscal Virtue,"
in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2013, Volume 28
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Leonardo Melosi & Francesco Bianchi, 2012. "Dormant Shocks and Fiscal Virtue," 2012 Meeting Papers 44, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Francesco Bianchi & Leonardo Melosi, 2013. "Dormant Shocks and Fiscal Virtue," Working Papers 13-12, Duke University, Department of Economics.
- Francesco Bianchi & Leonardo Melosi, 2013. "Dormant Shocks and Fiscal Virtue," PIER Working Paper Archive 13-032, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
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