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Interest rate risk and other determinants of post WWII U.S. government debt/GDP dynamics

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  • Thomas J. Sargent

    (New York University)

  • George J. Hall

    (Brandeis University)

Abstract

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Society for Economic Dynamics in its series 2010 Meeting Papers with number 208.

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Date of creation: 2010
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Handle: RePEc:red:sed010:208

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References

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  1. Bohn, Henning, 1992. "Budget deficits and government accounting," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 1-83, December.
  2. George J. Hall & Thomas J. Sargent, 1997. "Accounting for the federal government's cost of funds," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Jul, pages 18-28.
  3. Monika Piazzesi & Martin Schneider, 2007. "Equilibrium Yield Curves," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2006, Volume 21, pages 389-472 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 3-33, 02.
  5. Antje Berndt & Hanno Lustig & Şevin Yeltekin, 2012. "How Does the US Government Finance Fiscal Shocks?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 69-104, January.
  6. Hanno Lustig & Christopher Sleet & Sevin Yeltekin, . "Fiscal Hedging with Nominal Assets," GSIA Working Papers 2006-E35, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
  7. Eisner, Robert & Pieper, Paul J, 1986. "A New View of the Federal Debt and Budget Deficits: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(5), pages 1156-57, December.
  8. W. Michael Cox, 1985. "The behavior of Treasury securities; monthly, 1942-1984," Working Papers 8501, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  9. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Jonathan H. Wright, 2008. "The TIPS yield curve and inflation compensation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-05, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  10. Boskin, Michael J, 1982. "Federal Government Deficits: Some Myths and Realities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(2), pages 296-303, May.
  11. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Jonathan H. Wright, 2006. "The U.S. Treasury yield curve: 1961 to the present," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-28, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  12. Aizenman, Joshua & Marion, Nancy, 2011. "Using inflation to erode the US public debt," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 524-541.
  13. Andrew Atkeson & Lee E. Ohanian., 2001. "Are Phillips curves useful for forecasting inflation?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 2-11.
  14. Lucas, Robert Jr. & Stokey, Nancy L., 1983. "Optimal fiscal and monetary policy in an economy without capital," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 55-93.
  15. Seater, John J., 1981. "The market value of outstanding government debt, 1919-1975," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 85-101.
  16. Michael Cox, W., 1985. "The behavior of treasury securities monthly, 1942-1984," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 227-250, September.
  17. Cox, W. Michael & Hirschhorn, Eric, 1983. "The market value of U.S. government debt; Monthly, 1942-1980," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 261-272.
  18. Daniel F. Waggoner, 1997. "Spline methods for extracting interest rate curves from coupon bond prices," Working Paper 97-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  19. Butkiewicz, James L., 1983. "The market value of outstanding government debt : Comment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 373-379.
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Cited by:
  1. Eric M. Leeper & Todd B. Walker, 2012. "Perceptions and Misperceptions of Fiscal Inflation," NBER Chapters, in: Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis, pages 255-299 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Makoto Nakajima, 2013. "Monetary Policy with Heterogeneous Agents," 2013 Meeting Papers 356, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  3. Hideki Konishi & Kozo Ueda, 2013. "Aging and Deflation from a Fiscal Perspective," IMES Discussion Paper Series 13-E-13, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
  4. Alessandro Missale, 2012. "Sovereign debt management and fiscal vulnerabilities," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Threat of fiscal dominance?, volume 65, pages 157-176 Bank for International Settlements.
  5. Francesco Bianchi & Leonardo Melosi, 2013. "Dormant Shocks and Fiscal Virtue," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2013, Volume 28, pages 1-46 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Bianconi, Marcelo & Fisher, Walter H., 2011. "Intertemporal Budget Policies and Macroeconomic Adjustment in Indebted Open Economies," Economics Series 271, Institute for Advanced Studies.
  7. Joshua Aizenman & Nancy Marion, 2009. "Using Inflation to Erode the U.S. Public Debt," NBER Working Papers 15562, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Polito, Vito & Wickens, Mike, 2012. "A model-based indicator of the fiscal stance," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 526-551.
  9. Bernardin Akitoby & Takuji Komatsuzaki & Ariel J Binder, 2014. "Inflation and Public Debt Reversals in the G7 Countries," IMF Working Papers 14/96, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Sutherland, Douglas, 2012. "Fiscal Consolidation Needs and Implications for Growth," MPRA Paper 38745, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Krause, Michael U. & Moyen, Stéphane, 2013. "Public debt and changing inflation targets," Discussion Papers 06/2013, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  12. Reda, Cherif & Fuad, Hasanov, 2010. "Public Debt Dynamics and Debt Feedback," MPRA Paper 27918, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  13. Joshua Mason and Arjun Jayadev, . "Fisher Dynamics in Household Debt: The Case of the U.S. 1929-2011," Working Papers 13, University of Massachusetts Boston, Economics Department.
  14. Fuad Hasanov & Reda Cherif, 2012. "Public Debt Dynamics," IMF Working Papers 12/230, International Monetary Fund.

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