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Were There Regime Switches in U.S. Monetary Policy?

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Author Info
Christopher A. Sims
Tao Zha

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Abstract

A multivariate regime-switching model for monetary policy is confronted with U.S. data. The best fit allows time variation in disturbance variances only. With coefficients allowed to change, the best fit is with change only in the monetary policy rule and there are three estimated regimes corresponding roughly to periods when most observers believe that monetary policy actually differed. But the differences among regimes are not large enough to account for the rise, then decline, in inflation of the 1970s and 1980s. Our estimates imply monetary targeting was central in the early 1980s, but also important sporadically in the 1970s.

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Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal American Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 96 (2006)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Pages: 54-81
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Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:96:y:2006:i:1:p:54-81

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," CEPR Discussion Papers 1908, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Cooley, Thomas F & LeRoy, Stephen F & Raymon, Neil, 1984. "Econometric Policy Evaluation: Note," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(3), pages 467-70, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Ben S. Bernanke & Ilian Mihov, 1998. "Measuring Monetary Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 113(3), pages 869-902, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 2004. "MCMC method for Markov mixture simultaneous-equation models: a note," Working Paper 2004-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
  5. Waggoner, Daniel F. & Zha, Tao, 2003. "Likelihood preserving normalization in multiple equation models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 329-347, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Arthur F. Burns, 1987. "The anguish of central banking," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Sep, pages 687-698.
  8. Chib S. & Jeliazkov I., 2001. "Marginal Likelihood From the Metropolis-Hastings Output," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 270-281, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Rochelle M. Edge, 2000. "Time-to-build, time-to-plan, habit-persistence, and the liquidity effect," International Finance Discussion Papers 673, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  10. Sims, Christopher A., 2003. "Implications of rational inattention," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 665-690, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Troy Davig & Eric M. Leeper, 2005. "Generalizing the Taylor Principle," NBER Working Papers 11874, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Timothy Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent, 2003. "Drifts and volatilities: monetary policies and outcomes in the post WWII U.S," Working Paper 2003-25, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Eric M. Leeper & Tao Zha, 2003. "Modest policy interventions," Working Paper 2003-24, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Jean Boivin & Marc P. Giannoni, 2003. "Has Monetary Policy Become More Effective?," NBER Working Papers 9459, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Litterman, Robert B, 1986. "Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions-Five Years of Experience," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 4(1), pages 25-38, January.
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  16. Giorgio Primiceri, 2005. "Why Inflation Rose and Fell: Policymakers' Beliefs and US Postwar Stabilization Policy," NBER Working Papers 11147, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Robertson, John C & Tallman, Ellis W, 2001. "Improving Federal-Funds Rate Forecasts in VAR Models Used for Policy Analysis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(3), pages 324-30, July.
  18. James D. Hamilton & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2004. "Normalization in econometrics," Working Paper 2004-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
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  19. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles Evans, 2001. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 8403, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Chib, Siddhartha, 1996. "Calculating posterior distributions and modal estimates in Markov mixture models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 79-97, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. John Geweke, 1999. "Using simulation methods for bayesian econometric models: inference, development,and communication," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 1-73. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Sims, Christopher A & Zha, Tao, 1998. "Bayesian Methods for Dynamic Multivariate Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 949-68, November.
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  23. Thomas A. Lubik & Frank Schorfheide, 2004. "Testing for Indeterminacy: An Application to U.S. Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 190-217, March. [Downloadable!]
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  24. Luca Gambetti & Evi Pappa & Fabio Canova, 2005. "The structural dynamics of US output and inflation: what explains the changes?," Economics Working Papers 921, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra. [Downloadable!]
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  25. Eric M. Leeper & Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1996. "What Does Monetary Policy Do?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1996-2), pages 1-78. [Downloadable!]
  26. Thomas Sargent & Noah Williams & Tao Zha, 2004. "Shocks and government beliefs: the rise and fall of American inflation," Working Paper 2004-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
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