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Markov-switching structural vector autoregressions: theory and application

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  • Juan Francisco Rubio-Ramírez
  • Daniel Waggoner
  • Tao Zha

Abstract

This paper develops a new and easily implementable necessary and sufficient condition for the exact identification of a Markov-switching structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model. The theorem applies to models with both linear and some nonlinear restrictions on the structural parameters. We also derive efficient MCMC algorithms to implement sign and long-run restrictions in Markov-switching SVARs. Using our methods, four well-known identification schemes are used to study whether monetary policy has changed in the euro area since the introduction of the European Monetary Union. We find that models restricted to only time-varying shock variances dominate the other models. We find a persistent post-1993 regime that is associated with low volatility of shocks to output, prices, and interest rates. Finally, the output effects of monetary policy shocks are small and uncertain across regimes and models. These results are robust to the four identification schemes studied in this paper.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta in its series Working Paper with number 2005-27.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:2005-27

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  9. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
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  17. Angeloni, Ignazio & Ehrmann, Michael, 2003. "Monetary policy transmission in the euro area: any changes after EMU?," Working Paper Series 0240, European Central Bank.
  18. Waggoner, Daniel F. & Zha, Tao, 2003. "A Gibbs sampler for structural vector autoregressions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 349-366, November.
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