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Measuring Contagion With A Bayesian Time-Varying Coefficient Model

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  • Alessandro Rebucci

    (International Monetary Fund)

Abstract

We propose to use a time-varying coefficient model to measure contagion. The proposed measure works in the joint presence of heteroskedasticity and omitted variables. It requires knowledge of the source of the crisis but not its timing. The estimation procedure is Bayesian and is based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. We asses the performance of the proposed measure both with simulated and actual data.

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File URL: http://www.ivie.es/downloads/docs/wpasad/wpasad-2003-20.pdf
File Function: Fisrt version / Primera version, 2003
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie) in its series Working Papers. Serie AD with number 2003-20.

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Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2003
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published by Ivie
Handle: RePEc:ivi:wpasad:2003-20

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Keywords: Contagion; Gibbs sampling; heteroskedasticity; omitted variable;

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References

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  1. Matteo Ciccarelli & Alessandro Rebucci, 2002. "The Transmission Mechanism of European Monetary Policy," IMF Working Papers 02/54, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Chib, Siddhartha & Greenberg, Edward, 1995. "Hierarchical analysis of SUR models with extensions to correlated serial errors and time-varying parameter models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 339-360, August.
  3. Taimur Baig & Ilan Goldfajn, 2000. "The Russian Default and the Contagion to Brazil," IMF Working Papers 00/160, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Timothy Cogley & Thomas Sargent, . "Drifts and Volatilities: Monetary Policies and Outcomes in the Post WWII US," Working Papers 2133503, Department of Economics, W. P. Carey School of Business, Arizona State University.
  5. Canova, Fabio, 1993. "Modelling and forecasting exchange rates with a Bayesian time-varying coefficient model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 233-261.
  6. Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "Contagion: How to Measure It?," NBER Chapters, in: Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 269-334 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Manmohan S. Kumar & Avinash Persaud, 2001. "Pure Contagion and Investors Shifting Risk Appetite," IMF Working Papers 01/134, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Toni Gravelle & Maral Kichian & James Morley, 2003. "Shift Contagion in Asset Markets," Working Papers 03-5, Bank of Canada.
  9. Favero, Carlo A. & Giavazzi, Francesco, 2002. "Is the international propagation of financial shocks non-linear?: Evidence from the ERM," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 231-246, June.
  10. Canova, Fabio & Ciccarelli, Matteo, 2004. "Forecasting and turning point predictions in a Bayesian panel VAR model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 120(2), pages 327-359, June.
  11. Marcello Pericoli & Massimo Sbracia, 2003. "A Primer on Financial Contagion," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(4), pages 571-608, 09.
  12. Matteo Ciccarelli & Alessandro Rebucci, 2001. "The Transmission Mechanism of European Monetary Policy: Is There Heterogeneity? Is It Changing Over Time?," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0115, Banco de Espa�a.
  13. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pericoli, Marcello & Sbracia, Massimo, 2002. "Some Contagion, Some Interdependence: More Pitfalls in Tests of Financial Contagion," CEPR Discussion Papers 3310, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Roberto Rigobón & Kristin Forbes, 2001. "Contagion in Latin America: Definitions, Measurement, and Policy Implications," JOURNAL OF LACEA ECONOMIA, LACEA - LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION.
  15. King, Mervyn A & Wadhwani, Sushil, 1990. "Transmission of Volatility between Stock Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 5-33.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Juan Francisco Rubio-Ramírez & Daniel Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2005. "Markov-switching structural vector autoregressions: theory and application," Working Paper 2005-27, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  2. Fabio Canova & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2009. "Estimating Multicountry Var Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(3), pages 929-959, 08.
  3. Gropp, Reint & Moerman, Gerard, 2003. "Measurement of contagion in banks' equity prices," Working Paper Series 0297, European Central Bank.
  4. Ascari, Guido & Rankin, Neil, 2004. "Perpetual youth and endogenous labour supply: a problem and a possible solution," Working Paper Series 0346, European Central Bank.
  5. Cappiello, Lorenzo & Gérard, Bruno & Manganelli, Simone, 2005. "Measuring comovements by regression quantiles," Working Paper Series 0501, European Central Bank.
  6. Baele, Lieven & Inghelbrecht, Koen, 2010. "Time-varying integration, interdependence and contagion," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 791-818, September.
  7. Simone Manganelli & Lorenzo Cappiello & Bruno Gerard, 2004. "The Contagion Box: Measuring Co-Movements in Financial Markets by Regression Quantiles," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 77, Econometric Society.

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