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Shift Contagion in Asset Markets

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  • Toni Gravelle
  • Maral Kichian
  • James Morley

Abstract

The authors develop a new methodology to investigate how crises cause the relationship between financial variables to change. Two possible sources of increased co-movement between markets during high-variance episodes are considered: larger common shocks operating through standard market linkages, and a structural change in the propagation of shocks between markets, called “shift contagion.” The methodology has three key features: (i) high- and low-variance episodes are model-determined, rather than exogenously assigned; (ii) the markets where crises originate need not be known; and (iii) the approach provides an unambiguous test of shift contagion. Applications to bivariate returns in currency markets of developed countries and bond markets of emerging-market countries suggest that shift contagion occurs among the former but not the latter.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Working Papers with number 03-5.

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Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:03-5

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Keywords: Financial markets; Econometric and statistical methods;

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References

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  1. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-56, July.
  2. Reinhart, Carmen & Goldstein, Morris & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000. "Assessing financial vulnerability, an early warning system for emerging markets: Introduction," MPRA Paper 13629, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Rodrigo O. Valdés & Leonardo Hernández, 2001. "What Drives Contagion," IMF Working Papers 01/29, International Monetary Fund.
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  6. Chesnay, F. & Jondeau, E., 2000. "Does Correlation between Stock Returns Really Increase during Turbulent Period?," Working papers, Banque de France 73, Banque de France.
  7. Carlo A. Favero & Francesco Giavazzi, 2000. "Looking for Contagion: Evidence from the ERM," NBER Working Papers 7797, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Garcia, Rene, 1998. "Asymptotic Null Distribution of the Likelihood Ratio Test in Markov Switching Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(3), pages 763-88, August.
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  10. Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose & Charles Wyplosz, 1996. "Contagious Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 5681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Favero, Carlo A & Giavazzi, Francesco, 2000. "Looking for Contagion: the Evidence from the ERM," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 2591, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  13. Mervyn A. King & Sushil Wadhwani, 1989. "Transmission of Volatility Between Stock Markets," NBER Working Papers 2910, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October.
  15. Michael D. Bordo & Antu P. Murshid, 2000. "Are Financial Crises Becoming Increasingly More Contagious? What is the Historical Evidence on Contagion?," NBER Working Papers 7900, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Roberto Rigobon, 2000. "Identification through Heteroskedasticity: Measuring "Contagion: betweenArgentinean and Mexican Sovereign Bonds," NBER Working Papers 7493, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Chesnay, F. & Jondeau, E., 2000. "Does Correlation between Stock Returns Really Increase during Turbulent Period?," Working papers, Banque de France 73, Banque de France.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Ciccarelli, Matteo & Rebucci, Alessandro, 2003. "Measuring contagion with a Bayesian, time-varying coefficient model," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank 0263, European Central Bank.
  2. John Beirne & Jana Gieck, 2014. "Interdependence and Contagion in Global Asset Markets," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(4), pages 639-659, 09.

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