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Shift Contagion in Asset Markets

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  • Toni Gravelle
  • Maral Kichian
  • James Morley

Abstract

The authors develop a new methodology to investigate how crises cause the relationship between financial variables to change. Two possible sources of increased co-movement between markets during high-variance episodes are considered: larger common shocks operating through standard market linkages, and a structural change in the propagation of shocks between markets, called “shift contagion.” The methodology has three key features: (i) high- and low-variance episodes are model-determined, rather than exogenously assigned; (ii) the markets where crises originate need not be known; and (iii) the approach provides an unambiguous test of shift contagion. Applications to bivariate returns in currency markets of developed countries and bond markets of emerging-market countries suggest that shift contagion occurs among the former but not the latter.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Working Papers with number 03-5.

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Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:03-5

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Keywords: Financial markets; Econometric and statistical methods;

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References

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  1. Hansen, B.E., 1991. "Inference when a Nuisance Parameter is Not Identified Under the Null Hypothesis," RCER Working Papers 296, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
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  9. Favero, Carlo A & Giavazzi, Francesco, 2000. "Looking for Contagion: the Evidence from the ERM," CEPR Discussion Papers 2591, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  17. Michael D. Bordo & Antu P. Murshid, 2000. "Are Financial Crises Becoming Increasingly More Contagious? What is the Historical Evidence on Contagion?," NBER Working Papers 7900, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. Ciccarelli, Matteo & Rebucci, Alessandro, 2003. "Measuring contagion with a Bayesian, time-varying coefficient model," Working Paper Series 0263, European Central Bank.
  2. Beirne, John & Gieck, Jana, 2012. "Interdependence and contagion in global asset markets," Working Paper Series 1480, European Central Bank.

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