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Evidence of interdependence and contagion using a frequency domain framework

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  • Bodart, Vincent
  • Candelon, Bertrand

Abstract

This paper proposes a new measure of contagion, based on the frequency analysis of causality developed recently by Breitung and Candelon [Breitung, J., Candelon, B. 2006. Testing for short and long-run causality: a frequency domain approach, Journal of Econometrics, 12, 363-378.]. This approach handles several of the statistical problems identified in the literature. It also permits clear differentiation between temporary and permanent shifts in cross-market linkages: the first case is contagion while the second one is simply a measure of interdependence among markets. With this new approach, we examine the "Tequila" and Asian crises and find evidence of contagion for both. During the Asian crisis, higher interdependence has also contributed to the diffusion of the crisis in Asia.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Emerging Markets Review.

Volume (Year): 10 (2009)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
Pages: 140-150

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ememar:v:10:y:2009:i:2:p:140-150

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620356

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Keywords: Contagion Financial crisis Causality test Frequency domain;

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References

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  1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Sara Calvo, 1996. "Capital Flows to Latin America: Is There Evidence of Contagion Effects?," Peterson Institute Press: Chapters, in: Guillermo A. Calvo & Morris Goldstein & Eduard Hochreiter (ed.), Private Capital Flows to Emerging Markets After the Mexican Crisis, pages 151-171 Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  2. Van Rijckeghem, Caroline & Weder, Beatrice, 2001. "Sources of contagion: is it finance or trade?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 293-308, August.
  3. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2002. "Financial markets in time of stress," MPRA Paper 13869, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pericoli, Marcello & Sbracia, Massimo, 2002. "Some Contagion, Some Interdependence: More Pitfalls in Tests of Financial Contagion," CEPR Discussion Papers 3310, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Tamim Bayoumi & Manmohan S. Kumar & Giorgio Fazio & Ronald MacDonald, 2003. "Fatal Attraction: A New Measure of Contagion," IMF Working Papers 03/80, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Kee-Hong Bae & G. Andrew Karolyi & René M. Stulz, 2003. "A New Approach to Measuring Financial Contagion," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(3), pages 717-763, July.
  7. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1998. "On crises, contagion, and confusion," MPRA Paper 13709, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Roberto Rigobón & Kristin Forbes, 2001. "Contagion in Latin America: Definitions, Measurement, and Policy Implications," Journal of LACEA Economia, LACEA - LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION.
  9. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 2003. "Market Integration and Contagion," NBER Working Papers 9510, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. King, Mervyn A & Wadhwani, Sushil, 1990. "Transmission of Volatility between Stock Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 5-33.
  11. Breitung, Jorg & Candelon, Bertrand, 2006. "Testing for short- and long-run causality: A frequency-domain approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(2), pages 363-378, June.
  12. Yao, Feng & Hosoya, Yuzo, 2000. "Inference on one-way effect and evidence in Japanese macroeconomic data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 225-255, October.
  13. Lutkepohl, H, 1989. "The Stability Assumption in Tests of Causality between Money and Income," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 139-50.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Gallegati, Marco, 2012. "A wavelet-based approach to test for financial market contagion," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3491-3497.
  2. Rodrigo César de Castro Miranda & Benjamin Miranda Tabak & Mauricio Medeiros Junior, 2012. "Contagion in CDS, Banking and Equity Markets," Working Papers Series 293, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  3. Theologos Dergiades & Costas Milas & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2013. "Tweets, Google trends and sovereign spreads in the GIIPS," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 54405, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  4. Belén Martín-Barragán & Sofía B. Ramos & Helena Veiga, 2013. "Correlations between oil and stock markets : a wavelet-based approach," Statistics and Econometrics Working Papers ws130504, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Estadística y Econometría.
  5. Walid, Chkili & Chaker, Aloui & Masood, Omar & Fry, John, 2011. "Stock market volatility and exchange rates in emerging countries: A Markov-state switching approach," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 272-292, September.
  6. Ciner, Cetin, 2011. "Eurocurrency interest rate linkages: A frequency domain analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 498-505, October.
  7. Wei Yanfeng, 2013. "The Dynamic Relationships between Oil Prices and the Japanese Economy: A Frequency Domain Analysis," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 3, pages 57-67, May.

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