Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Empirics of Currency Crises: A Duration Analysis Approach

Contents:

Author Info

Abstract

This paper analyzes the origins of currency crises for 20 OECD countries and South Africa from 1970 through 1998. The main contributions are in three areas. First, it tests for contagious crises and attempts to recognize contagion channels by employing a duration analysis. Second, to minimize the concerns regarding the accuracy of identified crisis episodes, our paper uses crisis episodes that are identified by a relatively more objective method based on extreme value theory. Third, we make use of several robustness checks, including running our models on two different crisis episodes sets that are identified based on monthly and quarterly type spells. Our findings show that high values of volatility of unemployment rates, inflation rates, unemployment rates, real effective exchange rate, trade openness, and size of economy, and contagion factors(which mostly work through trade channels) increases the hazard of a crisis.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www1.carleton.ca/economics/ccms/wp-content/ccms-files/cep11-11.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Carleton University, Department of Economics in its series Carleton Economic Papers with number 11-11.

as in new window
Length: 49 pages
Date of creation: 16 Nov 2011
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published: Carleton Economic Papers
Handle: RePEc:car:carecp:11-11

Contact details of provider:
Postal: 1125 Colonel By Drive, Ottawa Ontario, K1S 5B6 Canada
Phone: 1-613-520-3744
Fax: 1-613-520-3906

Order Information:
Email:

Related research

Keywords: International finance; exchange rate; crises.;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Gian Maria Milesi-Ferrett & Assaf Razin, 1997. "Sharp Reductions in Current Account Deficits: An Empirical Analyis," NBER Working Papers 6310, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 1998. "Prospective deficits and the Asian currency crisis," Working Paper Series WP-98-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  3. Marcello Pericoli & Massimo Sbracia, 2003. "A Primer on Financial Contagion," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(4), pages 571-608, 09.
  4. Hashem Pesaran & Andreas Pick, 2004. "Econometric Issues in the Analysis of Contagion," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 67, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  5. Reuven Glick & Andrew K. Rose, 1998. "Contagion and Trade: Why Are Currency Crises Regional?," NBER Working Papers 6806, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 1994. "Contagious Speculative Attacks," CEPR Discussion Papers 1055, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Reinhart, Carmen M., 2000. "On crises, contagion, and confusion," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 145-168, June.
  8. Roberto Rigobon, 2001. "Contagion: How to Measure It?," NBER Working Papers 8118, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Catherine A. Pattillo & Andrew Berg, 1998. "Are Currency Crises Predictable? a Test," IMF Working Papers 98/154, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Kumar, Mohan & Moorthy, Uma & Perraudin, William, 2003. "Predicting emerging market currency crashes," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 427-454, September.
  11. Guillermo A. Calvo & Enrique G. Mendoza, 1999. "Regional Contagion and the Globalization of Securities Markets," NBER Working Papers 7153, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November.
  13. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pesenti, Paolo & Roubini, Nouriel, 1999. "Paper tigers?: A model of the Asian crisis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(7), pages 1211-1236, June.
  14. Masson, Paul, 1999. "Contagion:: macroeconomic models with multiple equilibria," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 587-602, August.
  15. Haile, Fasika & Pozo, Susan, 2008. "Currency crisis contagion and the identification of transmission channels," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 572-588, October.
  16. Fernando Broner & Gaston Gelos & Carmen Reinhart, 2004. "When in peril, retrench: testing the portfolio channel of contagion," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
  17. Otker, Inci & Pazarbasioglu, Ceyla, 1997. "Speculative attacks and macroeconomic fundamentals: evidence from some European currencies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 847-860, April.
  18. Linda S. Goldberg, 1990. "Predicting Exchange Rate Crises: Mexico Revisited," NBER Working Papers 3320, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1996. "Models of currency crises with self-fulfilling features," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 1037-1047, April.
  20. Raghuram G. Rajan, 2005. "Has Financial Development Made the World Riskier?," Working Papers id:248, eSocialSciences.
  21. Allan Drazen, 1999. "Political Contagion in Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 7211, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," MPRA Paper 6981, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  23. Jeanne, Olivier & Masson, Paul, 2000. "Currency crises, sunspots and Markov-switching regimes," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 327-350, April.
  24. Matthieu Bussière & Sweta c Saxena & Camilo Tovar, 2010. "Chronicle of currency collapses: re-examining the effects on output," BIS Working Papers 314, Bank for International Settlements.
  25. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-13, August.
  26. Burnside, Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin & Rebelo, Sergio, 2004. "Government guarantees and self-fulfilling speculative attacks," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 31-63, November.
  27. Mohammad Karimi & Marcel-Cristian Voia, 2011. "Identifying Extreme Values of Exchange Market Pressure," Carleton Economic Papers 11-10, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
  28. Sweta C. Saxena, 2004. "The Changing Nature of Currency Crises," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18, pages 321-350, 07.
  29. Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October.
  30. Aka, Brou E., 2006. "On the duration of the financial system stability under liberalization," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 147-161, June.
  31. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Sara, 1996. "Capital Flows to Latin America: Is There Evidence of Contagion Effects?”," MPRA Paper 7124, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  32. Flood, Robert & Marion, Nancy, 1999. "Perspectives on the Recent Currency Crisis Literature," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(1), pages 1-26, January.
  33. Mervyn A. King & Sushil Wadhwani, 1989. "Transmission of Volatility Between Stock Markets," NBER Working Papers 2910, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  34. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1999. "The twin crises: The causes of banking and balance of payments problems," MPRA Paper 14081, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  35. Mardi Dungey & Renee Fry & Vance Martin & Brenda González-Hermosillo, 2004. "Empirical Modeling of Contagion," IMF Working Papers 04/78, International Monetary Fund.
  36. Michael Bordo & Barry Eichengreen & Daniela Klingebiel & Maria Soledad Martinez-Peria, 2001. "Is the crisis problem growing more severe?," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 16(32), pages 51-82, 04.
  37. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996. " Contagious Currency Crises: First Tests," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 98(4), pages 463-84, December.
  38. Kaminsky, Graciela & Lyons, Richard K. & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2004. "Managers, investors, and crises: mutual fund strategies in emerging markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 113-134, October.
  39. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-25, August.
  40. Michael W. Klein & Nancy P. Marion, 1994. "Explaining the Duration of Exchange-Rate Pegs," NBER Working Papers 4651, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  41. Van Rijckeghem, Caroline & Weder, Beatrice, 2001. "Sources of contagion: is it finance or trade?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 293-308, August.
  42. Candelon Bertrand & Dumitrescu Elena-Ivona & Hurlin Christophe, 2010. "How to evaluate an Early Warning System? Towards a United Statistical Framework for Assessing Financial Crises Forecasting Methods," Research Memorandum 046, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
  43. Janice Boucher Breuer, 2004. "An Exegesis on Currency and Banking Crises," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18, pages 293-320, 07.
  44. Caramazza, Francesco & Ricci, Luca & Salgado, Ranil, 2004. "International financial contagion in currency crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 51-70, February.
  45. Raul Razo-Garcia, 2011. "The Duration of Intermediate Exchange Rate Regimes and Capital Controls," Carleton Economic Papers 11-01, Carleton University, Department of Economics, revised 17 Oct 2011.
  46. Barry Eichengreen & Michael D. Bordo, 2002. "Crises Now and Then: What Lessons from the Last Era of Financial Globalization," NBER Working Papers 8716, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  47. Paul Krugman, 1999. "Balance Sheets, the Transfer Problem, and Financial Crises," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 459-472, November.
  48. Gupta, Poonam & Mishra, Deepak & Sahay, Ratna, 2007. "Behavior of output during currency crises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 428-450, July.
  49. G. Andrew Karolyi, 2004. "Does International Financial Contagion Really Exist?," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 16(2-3), pages 136-146.
  50. Robert E. Cumby & Sweder van Wijnbergen, 1987. "Finanial Policy and Speculative Runs with a Crawling Peg: Argentina 1979-1981," NBER Working Papers 2376, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  51. Kiefer, Nicholas M, 1988. "Economic Duration Data and Hazard Functions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 646-79, June.
  52. van den Berg, Jeroen & Candelon, Bertrand & Urbain, Jean-Pierre, 2008. "A cautious note on the use of panel models to predict financial crises," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 101(1), pages 80-83, October.
  53. M M Tudela, 2001. "Explaining Currency Crises: A Duration Model Approach," CEP Discussion Papers dp0487, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  54. Blanco, Herminio & Garber, Peter M, 1986. "Recurrent Devaluation and Speculative Attacks on the Mexican Peso," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(1), pages 148-66, February.
  55. Braggion, Fabio & Christiano, Lawrence J. & Roldos, Jorge, 2009. "Optimal monetary policy in a [`]sudden stop'," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 582-595, May.
  56. Dornbusch, Rudiger & Park, Yung Chul & Claessens, Stijn, 2000. "Contagion: Understanding How It Spreads," World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, vol. 15(2), pages 177-97, August.
  57. Ilan Goldfajn & Taimur Baig, 1999. "Financial market contagion in the Asian crisis," Textos para discussão 400, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
  58. Rangvid, Jesper, 2001. " Second Generation Models of Currency Crises," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(5), pages 613-46, December.
  59. Taimur Baig & Ilan Goldfajn, 1999. "Financial Market Contagion in the Asian Crisis," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(2), pages 3.
  60. Flood, Robert P. & Marion, Nancy P., 2000. "Self-fulfilling risk predictions:: an application to speculative attacks," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 245-268, February.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Mohammad Karimi & Marcel-Cristian Voia, 2011. "Currency Crises, Exchange Rate Regimes, and Capital Account Liberalization: A Duration Analysis Approach," Carleton Economic Papers 11-12, Carleton University, Department of Economics.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:car:carecp:11-11. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Renee Lortie).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.