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A cautious note on the use of panel models to predict financial crises

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  • van den Berg, Jeroen
  • Candelon, Bertrand
  • Urbain, Jean-Pierre

Abstract

Panel data framework has often been used to build Early Warning Systems for financial crises. This paper questions the implicit assumption that crises are homogenously caused by identical factors. It suggests a preliminary step aiming at forming optimal country clusters.

Suggested Citation

  • van den Berg, Jeroen & Candelon, Bertrand & Urbain, Jean-Pierre, 2008. "A cautious note on the use of panel models to predict financial crises," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 101(1), pages 80-83, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:101:y:2008:i:1:p:80-83
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

    F37 C33;

    JEL classification:

    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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