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On currency crises and contagion

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Author Info
Marcel Fratzscher (European Central Bank, Frankfurt|Main, Germany)

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Abstract

This paper analyses the role of contagion in the currency crises in emerging markets during the 1990s. It employs a non-linear Markov-switching model to conduct a systematic comparison and evaluation of three distinct causes of currency crises: contagion, weak economic fundamentals, and sunspots, i.e. unobservable shifts in agents' beliefs. Testing this model empirically through Markov-switching and panel data models reveals that contagion, i.e. a high degree of real integration and financial interdependence among countries, is a core explanation for recent emerging market crises. The model has a remarkably good predictive power for the 1997-1998 Asian crisis. The findings suggest that in particular the degree of financial interdependence and also real integration among emerging markets are crucial not only in explaining past crises but also in predicting the transmission of future financial crises. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/ijfe.203
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Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal International Journal of Finance & Economics.

Volume (Year): 8 (2003)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 109-129
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Handle: RePEc:ijf:ijfiec:v:8:y:2003:i:2:p:109-129

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References listed on IDEAS
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  2. Fratzscher, M., 1999. "What Causes Currency Crises: Sunspots, Contagion or Fundamentals?," Economics Working Papers eco99/39, European University Institute.
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  4. Eichengreen, Barry & Tobin, James & Wyplosz, Charles, 1995. "Two Cases for Sand in the Wheels of International Finance," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(428), pages 162-72, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Franklin Allen & Douglas Gale, 1999. "Financial Contagion," Levine's Working Paper Archive 2092, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Ilan Goldfajn & Taimur Baig, 1999. "Financial market contagion in the Asian crisis," Textos para discussão 400, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
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  8. Glick, Reuven & Rose, Andrew K., 1999. "Contagion and trade: Why are currency crises regional?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 603-617, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Dirk Baur & Renee Fry, 2006. "Endogenous Contagion - A Panel Data Analysis," CAMA Working Papers 2006-09, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  2. Manuela Goretti, 2005. "The Brazilian Currency Turmoil of 2002: A Nonlinear Analysis," International Finance 0506001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Michael Chui & Simon Hall & Ashley Taylor, . "Crisis spillovers in emerging market economies: interlinkages, vulnerabilities and investor behaviour," Bank of England working papers 212, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  4. García-Fronti, Javier & Miller, Marcus & Zhang, Lei, 2006. "Supply Shocks and Currency Crises: The Policy Dilemma Reconsidered," CEPR Discussion Papers 5905, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Heid, Frank & Nestmann, Thorsten & Von Westernhagen, Natalja & Weder di Mauro, Beatrice, 2005. "German Bank Lending During Financial Crises: A Bank Level Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 5164, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Massacci, D., 2007. "Identification and Estimation in an Incoherent Model of Contagion," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0744, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
  7. Araújo, Aloísio Pessoa de & Márcia Saraiva Leon, 2002. "Speculative Attacks on Debts, Dollarization and Optimum Currency Areas," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 446, Graduate School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
  8. Marcel Fratzscher & Matthieu Bussiere, 2002. "Towards a new early warning system of financial crises," Working Paper Series 145, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Matthieu Bussière, 2007. "Balance of payment crises in emerging markets - how early were the “early” warning signals?," Working Paper Series 713, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  10. Miller, Marcus & Thampanishvong, Kannika & Zhang, Lei, 2003. "Learning to Forget? Contagion and Political Risk in Brazil," CEPR Discussion Papers 3785, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Beckmann, Daniela & Menkhoff, Lukas & Sawischlewski, Katja, 2005. "Robust Lessons about Practical Early Warning Systems," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Hannover dp-322, Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Patricia Alvarez-Plata & Mechthild Schrooten, 2003. "The Argentinean Currency Crisis : A Markov-Switching Model Estimation," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 348, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Harry Kelejian & George Tavlas & George Hondroyiannis, 2006. "A Spatial Modelling Approach to Contagion Among Emerging Economies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 423-441, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Giampiero M. Gallo & Edoardo Otranto, 2005. "Volatility Transmission in Financial Markets: A New Approach," Econometrics Working Papers Archive wp2005_10, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica "G. Parenti". [Downloadable!]
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