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Contagious Currency Crises: First Tests

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  • Eichengreen, Barry
  • Rose, Andrew
  • Wyplosz, Charles

Abstract

The authors address the fact that the incidence of speculative attacks tends to be temporally correlated; that is, currency crises appear to pass 'contagiously' from one country to another. The paper provides a survey of the theoretical literature. The authors also provide empirical evidence consistent with the contagious nature of currency crises. They estimate that the existence of a currency crisis elsewhere in the world (whether successful or not) raises the probability of an attack on the domestic currency by 8 percent, even after taking account of a variety of domestic political and economic factors. Copyright 1996 by The editors of the Scandinavian Journal of Economics.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Scandinavian Journal of Economics.

Volume (Year): 98 (1996)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Pages: 463-84

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Handle: RePEc:bla:scandj:v:98:y:1996:i:4:p:463-84

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Web page: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1111/(ISSN)1467-9442

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Web: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/subs.asp?ref=0347-0520

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References

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  1. Bensaid, B.B. & Jeanne, O., 1995. "The Instability of Fixed Exchange Rate Systems when Raising the Nominal Interest Rate is Costly," Papers 9536, Tilburg - Center for Economic Research.
  2. Douglas W. Diamond & Philip H. Dybvig, 2000. "Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 14-23.
  3. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  4. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Sara, 1996. "Capital Flows to Latin America: Is There Evidence of Contagion Effects?”," MPRA Paper 7124, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Grilli, Vittorio U., 1986. "Buying and selling attacks on fixed exchange rate systems," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1-2), pages 143-156, February.
  6. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1997. "Destabilizing effects of exchange-rate escape clauses," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1-2), pages 61-77, August.
  7. Claessens, Stijn, 1991. "Balance of payments crises in an optimal portfolio model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 81-101, January.
  8. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-13, August.
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