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Currency Crashes in Emerging Markets: Empirical Indicators

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  • Jeffrey A. Frankel
  • Andrew K. Rose

Abstract

We use a panel of annual data for over one hundred developing countries from 1971 through 1992 to characterize currency crashes. We define a currency crash as a large change of the nominal exchange rate that is also a substantial increase in the rate of change of nominal depreciation. We examine the composition of the debt as well as its level, and a variety of other macroeconomic factors, external and foreign. Crashes tend to occur when: output growth is low; the growth of domestic credit is high; and the level of foreign interest rates is high. A low ratio of FDI to debt is consistently associated with a high likelihood of a crash.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1996. "Currency Crashes in Emerging Markets: Empirical Indicators," NBER Working Papers 5437, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:5437
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

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