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Currency Crises, Sunspots and Markov-Switching Regimes

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Jeanne, Olivier
Masson, Paul R

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Abstract

This paper investigates the theoretical properties of a class of 'second generation' models of currency crises as well as their applicability to empirical work. We show that under some conditions these models give rise to an arbitrarily large number of equilibria, as well as cyclic or chaotic dynamics for the devaluation expectations. We then propose an econometric technique, based on the Markov-switching regimes framework, by which these models can be brought to the data. We illustrate this empirical approach by studying the experience of the French franc between 1987 and 1993, and find that the model performs significantly better when it allows the devaluation expectations to be influenced by sunspots.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 1990.

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Date of creation: Oct 1998
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:1990

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Keywords: Currency Crises European Monetary System French franc Markov-switching regimes Self-Fulfilling Speculation Sunspots

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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  1. Hens, Thorsten & Mayer, Janós & Pilgrim, Beate, 2004. "Existence of Sunspot Equilibria and Uniqueness of Spot Market Equilibria: The Case of Intrinsically Complete Markets," Discussion Papers 2004/15, Department of Finance and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration. [Downloadable!]
  2. Thorsten Hens & Beate Pilgrim, . "Subsidizing Charitable Giving in a Field Experiment," IEW - Working Papers iewwp070, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - IEW. [Downloadable!]
  3. Kristina Kittelmann & Marcel Tirpak & Rainer Schweickert & Lúcio Vinhas de Souza, 2006. "From Transition Crises to Macroeconomic Stability? Lessons from a Crises Early Warning System for Eastern European and CIS Countries," Kiel Working Papers 1269, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
  4. Virginie Boinet & Oreste Napolitano & Nicola Spagnolo, 2002. "Are currency crises self-fulfilling? the case of Argentina," Economics and Finance Discussion Papers 02-26, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Shiu-Sheng Chen, 2003. "Revisiting the Interest Rate-Exchange Rate Nexus: A Markov Switching Approach," International Finance 0303002, EconWPA, revised 13 Mar 2003. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Simone Manganelli & Lorenzo Cappiello & Bruno Gerard, 2004. "The Contagion Box: Measuring Co-Movements in Financial Markets by Regression Quantiles," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 77, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  7. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Nicola Spagnolo, 2004. "Modelling East Asian exchange rates: a Markov-switching approach," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 14(4), pages 233-242, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Muhd-Zulkhibri Abdul Majid, 2004. "Sources Of Asian Currency Crisis," International Finance 0405020, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  9. Marcel Fratzscher, 2003. "On currency crises and contagion," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(2), pages 109-129. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Demosthenes N. Tambakis, 2007. "Fear of Floating and Social Welfare," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(3), pages 183-204, September. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Melisso Boschi & Aditya Goenka, 2006. "Habit formation and the transmission of financial crises," Economics Discussion Papers 608, University of Essex, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  12. Massacci, D., 2007. "Identification and Estimation in an Incoherent Model of Contagion," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0744, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
  13. Celine Rochon, 2006. "Devaluation without common knowledge," OFRC Working Papers Series 2006fe03, Oxford Financial Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  14. Arias, Guillaume & Erlandsson, Ulf, 2004. "Regime switching as an alternative early warning system of currency crises - an application to South-East Asia," Working Papers 2004:11, Lund University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  15. Giancarlo Corsetti & Marcello Pericoli & Massimo Sbracia, 2001. "Correlation Analysis of Financial Contagion: What One Should Know before Running a Test," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 408, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Patricia Alvarez-Plata & Mechthild Schrooten, 2003. "The Argentinean Currency Crisis : A Markov-Switching Model Estimation," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 348, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Celine Rochon & Andrew Feltenstein, 2006. "Can Good Events Lead to Bad Outcomes? Endogenous Banking Crises and Fiscal Policy Responses," IMF Working Papers 06/263, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  18. Philip Arestis & Kostas Mouratidis, 2003. "Credibility of Monetary Policy in Four Accession Countries: A Markov Regime-Switching Approach," Economics Working Paper Archive 371, Levy Economics Institute, The. [Downloadable!]
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  19. Marcelo Sánchez, 2005. "The link between interest rates and exchange rates - do contractionary depreciations make a difference?," Working Paper Series 548, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  20. M. Sbracia & Alessandro Prati, 2002. "Currency Crises and Uncertainty About Fundamentals," IMF Working Papers 02/3, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  21. Roman Kraeussl, 2003. "Do Changes in Sovereign Credit Ratings Contribute to Financial Contagion in Emerging Market Crises?," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/22, Center for Financial Studies. [Downloadable!]
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