This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

On currency crises and contagion

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Marcel Fratzscher () (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, Postfach 16 03 19, 60066 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

This paper analyzes the role of contagion in the currency crises in emerging markets during the 1990s. It employs a non-linear Markov-switching model to conduct a systematic comparison and evaluation of three distinct causes of currency crises: contagion, weak economic fundamentals, and sunspots, i.e. unobservable shifts in agents' beliefs. Testing this model empirically through Markov-switching and panel data models reveals that contagion, i.e. a high degree of real integration and financial interdependence among countries, is a core explanation for recent emerging market crises. The model has a remarkably good predictive power for the 1997-98 Asian crisis. The findings suggest that in particular the degree of financial interdependence and also real integration among emerging markets are crucial not only in explaining past crises but also in predicting the transmission of future financial crises. JEL Classification: F30; E60; E65; E44.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help file. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp139.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 139.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML, plain text, BibTeX, RIS (EndNote), ReDIF
Length: 42 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20020139

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Postfach 16 03 19, Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Phone: +49 69 1344 0
Fax: +49 69 1344 6000
Web page: http://www.ecb.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Postal: Press and Information Division, European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Email:

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Official Publications).

Related research
Keywords: Currency crises contagion Markov-switching panel data prediction.

Other versions of this item:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Charles Engel & Craig S. Hakkio, 1994. "The distribution of exchange rates in the EMS," Research Working Paper 94-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    Other versions:
  2. Fratzscher, M., 1999. "What Causes Currency Crises: Sunspots, Contagion or Fundamentals?," Economics Working Papers eco99/39, European University Institute.
  3. Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose & Charles Wyplosz, 1996. "Contagious Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 5681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Eichengreen, Barry & Tobin, James & Wyplosz, Charles, 1995. "Two Cases for Sand in the Wheels of International Finance," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(428), pages 162-72, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Franklin Allen & Douglas Gale, 1999. "Financial Contagion," Levine's Working Paper Archive 2092, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Glick, Reuven & Rose, Andrew K., 1999. "Contagion and trade: Why are currency crises regional?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 603-617, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Gaston R. Gelos & Ratna Sahay, 2000. "Financial Market Spillovers in Transition Economies," IMF Working Papers 00/71, International Monetary Fund.
    Other versions:
  9. Jeanne, Olivier & Masson, Paul R, 1998. "Currency Crises, Sunspots and Markov-Switching Regimes," CEPR Discussion Papers 1990, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Masson, Paul, 1999. "Contagion:: macroeconomic models with multiple equilibria," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 587-602, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1996. "Models of Currency Crises with Self-fulfilling Features," CEPR Discussion Papers 1315, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. Drazen, Allan & Masson, Paul R, 1994. "Credibility of Policies versus Credibility of Policymakers," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 109(3), pages 735-54, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  13. Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul & Reinhart, Carmen M., 1997. "Leading indicators of currency crises," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1852, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 1998. "The Asian Liquidity Crisis," NBER Working Papers 6796, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  15. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  17. Miller, Merton, 1998. "Asian financial crisis," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 355-358, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Ilan Goldfajn & Rodrigo O. Valdés, 1997. "Capital Flows and the Twin Crises : The Role of Liquidity," IMF Working Papers 97/87, International Monetary Fund.
  19. Catherine A. Pattillo & Andrew Berg, 1998. "Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test," IMF Working Papers 98/154, International Monetary Fund.
    Other versions:
  20. Goldfajn, Ilan & Valdes, Rodrigo O., 1998. "Are currency crises predictable?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(3-5), pages 873-885, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Francis X. Diebold & Joon-Haeng Lee & Gretchen C. Weinbach, 1993. "Regime switching with time-varying transition probabilities," Working Papers 93-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  22. Taimur Baig & Ilan Goldfajn, 1998. "Financial Market Contagion in the Asian Crisis," IMF Working Papers 98/155, International Monetary Fund.
  23. Caroline van Rijckeghem & Beatrice Weder, 1999. "Sources of Contagion: Finance or Trade?," IMF Working Papers 99/146, International Monetary Fund.
  24. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pesenti, Paolo & Roubini, Nouriel, 1999. "What caused the Asian currency and financial crisis?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 305-373, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  25. Pavan Ahluwalia, 2000. "Discriminating Contagion - An Alternative Explanation of Contagious Currency Crises in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 00/14, International Monetary Fund.
  26. Gomez-Puig, Marta & Montalvo, JoseG., 1997. "A new indicator to assess the credibility of the EMS," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(8), pages 1511-1535, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  27. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-25, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  28. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Mendoza, Enrique G., 2000. "Rational contagion and the globalization of securities markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 79-113, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  29. Taimur Baig & Ilan Goldfajn, 2000. "The Russian Default and the Contagion to Brazil," IMF Working Papers 00/160, International Monetary Fund.
  30. Calvo, Sara & Reinhart, Carmen, 1996. "Capital flows to Latin America : Is there evidence of contagion effects?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1619, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  31. Franklin Allen & Douglas Gale, 2000. "Optimal Currency Crises," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 00-23, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  32. Fischer, S. & Cooper, R.N. & Dornbusch, R. & Garber, P.M. & Massad, C. & Polak, J.J. & Rodrik, D. & Tarapore, S.S., 1998. "Should the IMF Pursue Capital-Account Convertibility?," Princeton Essays in International Economics 207, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
  33. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Reinhart, Carmen M., 2000. "On crises, contagion, and confusion," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 145-168, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  34. Hamilton, James D., 1990. "Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 39-70. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  35. Francesco Caramazza & Luca Antonio Ricci & Ranil Salgado, 2000. "Trade and Financial Contagion in Currency Crises," IMF Working Papers 00/55, International Monetary Fund.
  36. Velasco, A. & Chang, R., 1998. "The Asian Liquidity Crisis," Working Papers 98-27, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University. [Downloadable!]
  37. Dornbusch, Rudiger & Park, Yung Chul & Claessens, Stijn, 2000. "Contagion: Understanding How It Spreads," World Bank Research Observer, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(2), pages 177-97, August.
  38. Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 1995. "Contagious speculative attacks," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 45-63, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  39. Jeanne, Olivier, 1997. "Are currency crises self-fulfilling?: A test," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3-4), pages 263-286, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Miller, Marcus & Thampanishvong, Kannika & Zhang, Lei, 2003. "Learning to Forget? Contagion and Political Risk in Brazil," CEPR Discussion Papers 3785, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Beckmann, Daniela & Menkhoff, Lukas & Sawischlewski, Katja, 2005. "Robust Lessons about Practical Early Warning Systems," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Hannover dp-322, Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Patricia Alvarez-Plata & Mechthild Schrooten, 2003. "The Argentinean Currency Crisis : A Markov-Switching Model Estimation," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 348, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Manuela Goretti, 2005. "The Brazilian currency turmoil of 2002: a nonlinear analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(4), pages 289-306. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Dirk Baur & Renee Fry, 2006. "Endogenous Contagion - A Panel Data Analysis," CAMA Working Papers 2006-09, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  6. Harry Kelejian & George Tavlas & George Hondroyiannis, 2006. "A Spatial Modelling Approach to Contagion Among Emerging Economies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 423-441, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Massacci, D., 2007. "Identification and Estimation in an Incoherent Model of Contagion," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0744, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
  8. Aloisio Pessoa de Araújo & Márcia Saraiva Leon, 2002. "Speculative Attacks on Debts, Dollarization and Optimum Currency Areas," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 446, Graduate School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
  9. Michael Chui & Simon Hall & Ashley Taylor, . "Crisis spillovers in emerging market economies: interlinkages, vulnerabilities and investor behaviour," Bank of England working papers 212, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  10. García-Fronti, Javier & Miller, Marcus & Zhang, Lei, 2006. "Supply Shocks and Currency Crises: The Policy Dilemma Reconsidered," CEPR Discussion Papers 5905, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Marcel Fratzscher & Matthieu Bussiere, 2002. "Towards a new early warning system of financial crises," Working Paper Series 145, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Matthieu Bussière, 2007. "Balance of payment crises in emerging markets - how early were the “early” warning signals?," Working Paper Series 713, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  13. Heid, Frank & Nestmann, Thorsten & Von Westernhagen, Natalja & Weder di Mauro, Beatrice, 2005. "German Bank Lending During Financial Crises: A Bank Level Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 5164, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Giampiero M. Gallo & Edoardo Otranto, 2005. "Volatility Transmission in Financial Markets: A New Approach," Econometrics Working Papers Archive wp2005_10, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica "G. Parenti". [Downloadable!]
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? Use the JEL tree to browse through the database by subfields.

This page was last updated on 2008-8-15.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.