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On currency crises and contagion

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Author Info
Marcel Fratzscher () (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, Postfach 16 03 19, 60066 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)

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Abstract

This paper analyzes the role of contagion in the currency crises in emerging markets during the 1990s. It employs a non-linear Markov-switching model to conduct a systematic comparison and evaluation of three distinct causes of currency crises: contagion, weak economic fundamentals, and sunspots, i.e. unobservable shifts in agents' beliefs. Testing this model empirically through Markov-switching and panel data models reveals that contagion, i.e. a high degree of real integration and financial interdependence among countries, is a core explanation for recent emerging market crises. The model has a remarkably good predictive power for the 1997-98 Asian crisis. The findings suggest that in particular the degree of financial interdependence and also real integration among emerging markets are crucial not only in explaining past crises but also in predicting the transmission of future financial crises. JEL Classification: F30; E60; E65; E44.

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 139.

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Length: 42 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2002
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20020139

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Related research
Keywords: Currency crises; contagion; Markov-switching; panel data; prediction.;

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References listed on IDEAS
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Cornelia Holthausen & Jean-Charles Rochet, 2002. "Efficient pricing of large value interbank payment systems," Working Paper Series 184, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Dirk Baur & Renee Fry, 2006. "Endogenous Contagion - A Panel Data Analysis," CAMA Working Papers 2006-09, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  3. Manuela Goretti, 2005. "The Brazilian Currency Turmoil of 2002: A Nonlinear Analysis," International Finance 0506001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Cruz Rodriguez, Alexis, 2009. "Choosing and assessing exchange rate regimes: A survey of the literature," MPRA Paper 16314, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  5. Michael Chui & Simon Hall & Ashley Taylor, . "Crisis spillovers in emerging market economies: interlinkages, vulnerabilities and investor behaviour," Bank of England working papers 212, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  6. García-Fronti, Javier & Miller, Marcus & Zhang, Lei, 2006. "Supply Shocks and Currency Crises: The Policy Dilemma Reconsidered," CEPR Discussion Papers 5905, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Emanuele Bacchiocchi & Marta Bevilacqua, 2009. "International crises, instability periods and contagion: the case of the ERM," International Review of Economics, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 105-122, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Giancarlo Corsetti & Luca Dedola, 2002. "From the ERM to the Euro: new evidence on economic and policy convergence among EU countries," Working Paper Series 176, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Heid, Frank & Nestmann, Thorsten & Von Westernhagen, Natalja & Weder di Mauro, Beatrice, 2005. "German Bank Lending During Financial Crises: A Bank Level Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 5164, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Miller, Marcus & Thampanishvong, Kannika & Zhang, Lei, 2003. "Learning to Forget? Contagion and Political Risk in Brazil," CEPR Discussion Papers 3785, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Beckmann, Daniela & Menkhoff, Lukas & Sawischlewski, Katja, 2005. "Robust Lessons about Practical Early Warning Systems," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Hannover dp-322, Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Patricia Alvarez-Plata & Mechthild Schrooten, 2003. "The Argentinean Currency Crisis: A Markov-Switching Model Estimation," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 348, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Harry Kelejian & George Tavlas & George Hondroyiannis, 2006. "A Spatial Modelling Approach to Contagion Among Emerging Economies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 423-441, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Massacci, D., 2007. "Identification and Estimation in an Incoherent Model of Contagion," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0744, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
  15. Araújo, Aloísio Pessoa de & Leon, Márcia Saraiva, 2002. "Speculative Attacks on Debts, Dollarization and Optimum Currency Areas," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 446, Graduate School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
  16. Carsten Detken & Alistair Dieppe & Jerome Henry & Frank Smets & Carmen Marin, 2002. "Model uncertainty and the equilibrium value of the real effective euro exchange rate," Working Paper Series 160, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  17. Nicole Jonker, 2002. "Constructing quality-adjusted price indices: a comparison of hedonic and discrete choice models," Working Paper Series 172, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  18. Marcel Fratzscher & Matthieu Bussiere, 2002. "Towards a new early warning system of financial crises," Working Paper Series 145, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  19. Matthieu Bussière, 2007. "Balance of payment crises in emerging markets - how early were the “early” warning signals?," Working Paper Series 713, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  20. Lutz Kilian & Atsushi Inoue, 2003. "On the selection of forecasting models," Working Paper Series 214, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  21. Rebecca N. Coke & Andrew Berg, 2004. "Autocorrelation-Corrected Standard Errors in Panel Probits: An Application to Currency Crisis Prediction," IMF Working Papers 04/39, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  22. Giampiero M. Gallo & Edoardo Otranto, 2005. "Volatility Transmission in Financial Markets: A New Approach," Econometrics Working Papers Archive wp2005_10, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica "G. Parenti". [Downloadable!]
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