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What caused the Asian currency and financial crisis?

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  • Corsetti, Giancarlo
  • Pesenti, Paolo
  • Roubini, Nouriel

Abstract

The paper explores the view that the Asian currency and financial crises in 1997 and 1998 reflected structural and policy distortions in the countries of the region, even though market overreaction and herding caused the plunge of exchange rates, asset prices and economic activity to be more severe than was warranted by the initial weak economic conditions. The first part of the paper provides an overview of economic fundamentals in Asia on the eve of the crisis, with emphasis on current account imbalances, quantity and quality of financial ‘overlending’, banking problems, and the composition, maturity and size of capital inflows. The second part of the paper presents a reconstruction of the Asian meltdown — from the antecedents in 1995-96 to the recent developments in the summer of 1998 — in parallel with a survey of the debate on the strategies to recover from the crisis, the role of international intervention, and the costs and benefits of capital controls.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Japan and the World Economy.

Volume (Year): 11 (1999)
Issue (Month): 3 (October)
Pages: 305-373

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Handle: RePEc:eee:japwor:v:11:y:1999:i:3:p:305-373

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505557

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  1. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," MPRA Paper 6981, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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  13. Alberto Alesina & Nouriel Roubini & Gerald D. Cohen, 1997. "Political Cycles and the Macroeconomy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262510944, December.
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  16. Alwyn Young, 1992. "A Tale of Two Cities: Factor Accumulation and Technical Change in Hong Kong and Singapore," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1992, Volume 7, pages 13-64 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Giancarlo Corsetti & Nouriel Roubini, 1997. "Politically Motivated Fiscal Deficits: Policy Issues in Closed and Open Economies," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(1), pages 27-54, 03.
  18. Rudger Dornbusch & Ilan Goldfajn & Rodrigo O. Vald├ęs, 1995. "Currency Crises and Collapses," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(2), pages 219-294.
  19. Cole, Harold L. & Kehoe, Timothy J., 1996. "A self-fulfilling model of Mexico's 1994-1995 debt crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 309-330, November.
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