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What Caused the Asian Currency and Financial Crisis? Part II: The Policy Debate

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Author Info
Giancarlo Corsetti
Paolo Pesenti
Nouriel Roubini

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Abstract

The paper explores the view that the Asian currency and financial crises in 1997 and 1998 reflected structural and policy distortions in the countries of the region, even if market overreaction and herding caused the plunge of exchange rates, asset prices, and economic activity to be more severe than warranted by the initial weak economic conditions. The second part of the paper presents a reconstruction of the Asian meltdown -- from the antecedents in 1995-96 to the recent developments in the summer of 1998 -- in parallel with a survey of the debate on the strategies to recover from the crisis, the role of international intervention, and the costs and benefits of capital controls.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 6834.

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Date of creation: Dec 1998
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Publication status: published as (Published as "What Caused the Asian Currency and Financial Crisis?") Japan and the World Economy, Vol. 11 (1999): 305-373.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:6834

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F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 1998. "Financial crises in emerging markets: a canonical model," Working Paper 98-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  5. Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti & Nouriel Roubini, 1998. "Paper Tigers? A Model of the Asian Crisis," NBER Working Papers 6783, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Buiter, W.H. & Corsetti, G.M. & Pesenti, P.A., 1998. "Interpreting the ERM Crisis: Country-Specific and Systemic Issues," Princeton Studies in International Economics 84, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
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  7. Summers, L-H & Cline, W-R & Eichengreen, B & Portes, R & Fraga, A & Goldstein, M, 1996. "From Halifax to Lyons : What Has Been Done About Crisis Management?," Princeton Studies in International Economics 200, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
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  8. Chang, R. & Velasco, A., 1998. "Financial Crises in Emerging Markets: A Canonical Model," Working Papers 98-21, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University. [Downloadable!]
  9. Alba, Pedro & Bhattacharya, Amar & Claessens, Stijn & Ghosh, Swati & Hernandez, Leonardo, 1998. "Volatility and contagion in a financially integrated world : lessons from East Asia's recent experience," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2008, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Giancarlo Corsetti & Nouriel Roubini, 1997. "Politically Motivated Fiscal Deficits: Policy Issues in Closed and Open Economies," Economics and Politics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 9(1), pages 27-54, 03. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 1998. "Financial Fragility and the Exchange Rate Regime," NBER Working Papers 6469, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Menzie D. Chinn, 1998. "Before the Fall: Were East Asian Currencies Overvalued?," NBER Working Papers 6491, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Milesi-Ferretti, G-M & Razin, A, 1996. "Current-Account Sustainability," Princeton Studies in International Economics 81, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
  16. Ilan Goldfajn & Rodrigo O. Valdés, 1997. "Capital Flows and the Twin Crises : The Role of Liquidity," IMF Working Papers 97/87, International Monetary Fund.
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  18. Chang, R. & Velasco, A., 1998. "Financial Fragility and the Exchange Rate Regime," Working Papers 98-05, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University. [Downloadable!]
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  20. Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 1998. "Financial Crises in Emerging Markets," NBER Working Papers 6606, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1997. "Understanding Financial Crises: A Developing Country Perspective," NBER Working Papers 5600, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Fischer, S. & Cooper, R.N. & Dornbusch, R. & Garber, P.M. & Massad, C. & Polak, J.J. & Rodrik, D. & Tarapore, S.S., 1998. "Should the IMF Pursue Capital-Account Convertibility?," Princeton Essays in International Economics 207, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
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  25. Steven Radelet & Jeffrey Sachs, 1998. "The Onset of the East Asian Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 6680, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  26. Sergio Rebelo & Carlos A. Vegh, 1995. "Real Effects of Exchange Rate-Based Stabilization: An Analysis of Competing Theories," NBER Working Papers 5197, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Wink Joosten, 2004. "The Asian Financial Crisis in Retrospect: What Happened? What Can We Conclude?," CPB Memoranda 87, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  2. Pereira, Luis Brites, 2006. "Bailouts, Taxation and Financial Supervision," FEUNL Working Paper Series wp483, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Economia. [Downloadable!]
  3. Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 1999. "Liquidity Crises in Emerging Markets: Theory and Policy," NBER Working Papers 7272, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. W. Jos Jansen, 2003. "What Do Capital Inflows Do? Dissecting the Transmission Mechanism for Thailand, 1980-96," Macroeconomics 0309012, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Yang, Dean, 2005. "International migration, human capital, and entrepreneurship : evidence from Philippine migrants'exchange rate shocks," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3578, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  6. W Buiter & A Sibert, 1999. "UDROP: A Small Contribution to the International Financial Architecture," CEP Discussion Papers 0425, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE. [Downloadable!]
  7. Barry Eichengreen & Ricardo Hausmann, 1999. "Exchange Rates and Financial Fragility," NBER Working Papers 7418, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Takatoshi Ito & Yuko Hashimoto, 2002. "High Frequency Contagion of Currency Crises in Asia," NBER Working Papers 9376, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Evan Tanner, 2001. "Exchange Market Pressure and Monetary Policy: Asia and Latin America in the 1990s," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan Journals, vol. 47(3), pages 2. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Dean Yang, 2006. "International Migration, Remittances, and Household Investment: Evidence from Philippine Migrants' Exchange Rate Shocks," NBER Working Papers 12325, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Eijffinger, Sylvester C W & Goderis, Benedikt, 2002. "Financial Crises, Monetary Policy and Financial Fragility; A Second-Generation Model of Currency Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 3637, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Hans-Werner Sinn, 2001. "Risk Taking, Limited Liability and the Competition of Bank Regulators," NBER Working Papers 8669, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  13. Duttagupta, Rupa & Spilimbergo, Antonio, 2003. "What Happened to Asian Exports During the Crisis?," CEPR Discussion Papers 4158, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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