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Crisis Prevention: Lessons from Mexico and East Asia

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Author Info
Sebastian Edwards

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Abstract

This paper provides a comparative analysis of the East Asian and Mexican crises, and draws lessons for the emerging economies. Although much of the discussion concentrates on East Asia and Mexico, I also draw on the history of some previous crisis episodes. I argue that in spite of the efforts to understand the anatomy of currency crises, there are still a large number of controversial and unresolved issues. More to the point, I argue that some of the lessons extracted from these crises are based on a misreading of the historical record. As a result, some of the policy implications that have emerged from this debate are, to say the least, questionable. In particular, I make two points: First, I argue that, in general, current account ratios have limited usefulness in determining a country's financial health. Although I fall short of taking the position that the current account is completely irrelevant, I do argue that a rigid interpretation of current account ratios may be highly misleading. Second, I argue that the rapidly growing popularity of controls on capital inflows as a device for reducing external vulnerability is rooted in a misreading of the recent history of external crises.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 7233.

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Date of creation: Jul 1999
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:7233

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 1998. "Capital flows to Emerging Markets: Liberalization, Overshooting, and Volatility," Working Papers 98.01, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Sebastian Edwards, 1989. "Structural Adjustment Policies in Highly Indebted Countries," NBER Chapters, in: Developing Country Debt and Economic Performance, Volume 1: The International Financial System, pages 159-208 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Michael Gavin & Ricardo Hausmann & Leonardo Leiderman, 1995. "Macroeconomics of Capital Flows to Latin America: Experience and Policy Issues," RES Working Papers 4012, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  4. Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Enrica Detragiache & Michael Mussa & Barry J. Eichengreen, 1998. "Capital Account Liberalization: Theoretical and Practical Aspects," IMF Occasional Papers 172, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Sebastian Edwards, 1992. "Exchange Rates as Nominal Anchors," NBER Working Papers 4246, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Menzie D. Chinn, 1998. "Before the Fall: Were East Asian Currencies Overvalued?," NBER Working Papers 6491, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Calvo, Guillermo A & Mendoza, Enrique G, 1996. "Petty Crime and Cruel Punishment: Lessons from the Mexican Debacle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 170-75, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Kevin Cowan & Jose De Gregorio, 1996. "Exchange rate policies and capital account management: Chile in the 1990s," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 465-488.
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  10. Michael P. Dooley, 1997. "A Model of Crises in Emerging Markets," NBER Working Papers 6300, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Rebelo, Sérgio, 1997. "What Happens When Countries Peg Their Exchange Rates? (The Real Side of Monetary Reforms)," CEPR Discussion Papers 1692, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Sebastian Edwards, 1998. "Capital Inflows into Latin America: A Stop-Go Story?," NBER Working Papers 6441, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti & Nouriel Roubini, 1998. "Paper tigers? A model of the Asian crisis," Research Paper 9822, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Fischer, S. & Cooper, R.N. & Dornbusch, R. & Garber, P.M. & Massad, C. & Polak, J.J. & Rodrik, D. & Tarapore, S.S., 1998. "Should the IMF Pursue Capital-Account Convertibility?," Princeton Essays in International Economics 207, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
  15. Gian Maria Milesi-Ferrett & Assaf Razin, 1997. "Sharp Reductions in Current Account Deficits: An Empirical Analyis," NBER Working Papers 6310, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Rudiger Dornbusch & Alejandro Werner, 1994. "Mexico: Stabilization, Reform, and No Growth," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 25(1994-1), pages 253-316. [Downloadable!]
  17. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Mendoza, Enrique, 1998. "Empirical Puzzles of Chilean Stabilization Policy," Working Papers 98-02, Duke University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  18. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "Staying Afloat When the Wind Shifts: External Factors and Emerging-Market Banking Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 1828, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Michael P. Dooley, 1995. "A Survey of Academic Literature on Controls over International Capital Transactions," IMF Working Papers 95/127, International Monetary Fund.
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  20. Reinhart, Carmen & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1994. "Capital inflows to Latin America," MPRA Paper 13406, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  21. Takatoshi Ito, 1999. "Capital Flows in Asia," Discussion Paper Series a371, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
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  22. Gian Maria Milesi-Ferrett & Assaf Razin, 1996. "Sustainability of Persistent Current Account Deficits," NBER Working Papers 5467, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  24. Sebastian Edwards, 1998. "Capital Flows, Real Exchange Rates, and Capital Controls: Some Latin American Experiences," NBER Working Papers 6800, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  25. Sebastian Edwards & Julio Santaella, 1993. "Devaluation Controversies in the Developing Countries: Lessons from the Bretton Woods Era," NBER Chapters, in: A Retrospective on the Bretton Woods System: Lessons for International Monetary Reform, pages 405-460 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  26. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1995. "Capital inflows to Latin America with reference to the Asian experience," MPRA Paper 13840, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  27. Inci Ötker & Hugh Bredenkamp & A. Javier Hamann & Esteban Jadresic & R. B. Johnston & Paul R. Masson & Barry J. Eichengreen, 1998. "Exit Strategies: Policy Options for Countries Seeking Exchange Rate Flexibility," IMF Occasional Papers 168, International Monetary Fund.
  28. Ilan Goldfajn & Eliane A. Cardoso, 1997. "Capital Flows to Brazil-The Endogeneity of Capital Controls," IMF Working Papers 97/115, International Monetary Fund.
  29. Sergio, R., 1997. "What Happens When Countries Peg Their Exchange Rates? (The Real Side of Monetary Reforms," RCER Working Papers 441, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  30. Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 1998. "Financial Crises in Emerging Markets," NBER Working Papers 6606, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  31. Maurice Obstfeld, 1997. "Open-Economy Macroeconomics: Developments in Theory and Policy," Working Papers 958, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
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  32. Sebastian Edwards, 1997. "The Mexican Peso Crisis? How Much Did We Know? When Did We Know It?," NBER Working Papers 6334, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  33. Guillermo Calvo & Carmen Reinhart & Leonardo Leiderman, 1992. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," IMF Working Papers 92/62, International Monetary Fund.
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  34. Rudger Dornbusch & Ilan Goldfajn & Rodrigo O. Valdés, 1995. "Currency Crises and Collapses," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1995-2), pages 219-294. [Downloadable!]
  35. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1999. "International Capital Movements, Financial Volatility and Financial Instability," NBER Working Papers 6390, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  36. Steven Radelet & Jeffrey Sachs, 1998. "The Onset of the East Asian Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 6680, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Ricardo Mora & Georges Siotis, 2000. "External Factors in Emerging Market Recoveries: An Empirical Investigation," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1415, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Pereira, Luis Brites, 2006. "Bailouts, Taxation and Financial Supervision," FEUNL Working Paper Series wp483, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Economia. [Downloadable!]
  3. Reuven Glick & Xueyan Guo & Michael Hutchison, 2004. "Currency Crises, Capital Account Liberalization, and Selection Bias," EPRU Working Paper Series 04-11, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Gordon H. Hanson & Craig McIntosh, 2007. "The Great Mexican Emigration," NBER Working Papers 13675, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Sebastian Edwards, 2004. "Thirty Years of Current Account Imbalances, Current Account Reversals and Sudden Stops," NBER Working Papers 10276, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Edward J. Kane, 2000. "Capital Movements, Banking Insolvency, and Silent Runs in the Asian Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 7514, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Sebastian Edwards, 2001. "Does the Current Account Matter?," NBER Working Papers 8275, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Sebastian Edwards, 2005. "Is the U.S. Current Account Deficit Sustainable? And If Not, How Costly is Adjustment Likely To Be?," NBER Working Papers 11541, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Reuven Glick & Michael Hutchison, 2002. "Capital controls and exchange rate instability in developing economies," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 00-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Mohamed Ben Abdallah & Iuliana Matei, 2005. "Crise et contagion : cas des pays de l'Europe de l'Est," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques bla05044, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1). [Downloadable!]
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  11. Carlos Ibarra, 2003. "Slow Growth, Trade Liberalisation and the Mexican Disease: a medium-term macroeconomic model with an application to Mexico," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 269-292, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Jaime Guajardo, 2004. "Financial Frictions and Business Cycles in Developing Countries," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 307, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  13. Reuven Glick & Michael Hutchison, . "Stopping "Hot Money" or Signaling Bad Policy? Capital Controls and the Onset of Currency Crises," EPRU Working Paper Series 00-14, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  14. Michael D. Bordo & Anna J. Schwartz, 2000. "Measuring Real Economic Effects of Bailouts: Historical Perspectives on How Countries in Financial Distress Have Fared With and Without Bailouts," NBER Working Papers 7701, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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