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A model of crises in emerging markets

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Author Info
Michael P. Dooley

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Abstract

This paper presents a "first generation" model of speculative attacks on emerging markets. Credit-constrained governments accumulate liquid assets in order to self-insure against shocks to national consumption. Governments also insure poorly regulated domestic financial markets. Given this policy regime, a variety of internal and external shocks generate capital inflows followed by anticipated speculative attacks. The model suggests that a common shock generated capital inflows to emerging markets in Asia and Latin America after 1989. Country-specific factors determined the timing of speculative attacks. Economic reform programs may also have generated capital inflow/crisis sequences.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number 630.

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Date of creation: 1998
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:630

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Related research
Keywords: Econometric models ; Banking market ; Risk;

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This page was last updated on 2009-11-18.

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