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Default, Credit Growth, and Asset Prices

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  • Mr. C. A. E. Goodhart
  • Miguel A. Segoviano
  • Boris Hofmann

Abstract

This paper uses a Merton-type estimate of the probability of default (PoD) for the main banks in a sample of Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and middle-income countries as a proxy for the fragility of their banking systems. Based on theory and stylized facts, the paper explores a range of financial and real variables that explain such PoDs across time. We find property price fluctuations and bank credit to be important explanatory factors. There is two-way interaction between these variables and a clearer relationship when the variables are entered as a deviation from trend. The lag structure between such developments and PoDs is long and varies widely across countries. The paper assesses the implications of these findings for economic policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. C. A. E. Goodhart & Miguel A. Segoviano & Boris Hofmann, 2006. "Default, Credit Growth, and Asset Prices," IMF Working Papers 2006/223, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2006/223
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    2. Mr. C. A. E. Goodhart & Miguel A. Segoviano, 2009. "Banking Stability Measures," IMF Working Papers 2009/004, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Oriol Aspachs & Charles Goodhart & Dimitrios Tsomocos & Lea Zicchino, 2007. "Towards a measure of financial fragility," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 37-74, January.
    4. Gabriel Jiménez & Jesús Saurina, 2006. "Credit Cycles, Credit Risk, and Prudential Regulation," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(2), May.
    5. Vonnák, Dzsamila, 2018. "Why do firms default on their foreign currency loans? The case of Hungary," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 207-222.
    6. Pallavi Chavan & Leonardo Gambacorta, 2016. "Bank lending and loan quality: the case of India," BIS Working Papers 595, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Ma, Qiang & Khan, Zeeshan & Chen, Fuzhong & Murshed, Muntasir & Siqun, Yang & Kirikkaleli, Dervis, 2023. "Revisiting the nexus between house pricing and money demand: Power spectrum and wavelet coherence based approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 266-274.
    8. Miguel A. Segoviano & Charles Goodhart, 2010. "Distress Dependence and Financial Stability," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 569, Central Bank of Chile.
    9. Mr. Leonardo Luna & Mr. Dale F Gray & Jorge Restrepo & Carlos Garcia, 2011. "Incorporating Financial Sector Risk Into Monetary Policy Models: Application to Chile," IMF Working Papers 2011/228, International Monetary Fund.
    10. International Monetary Fund, 2009. "Cyprus: Financial Sector Assessment Program Update: Technical Note: Measuring Banking Stability in Cyprus," IMF Staff Country Reports 2009/171, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Jong Lee & Jaemin Ryu & Dimitrios Tsomocos, 2013. "Measures of systemic risk and financial fragility in Korea," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 9(4), pages 757-786, November.
    12. Guseon Ji & Daniel Sungyeon Kim & Kwangwon Ahn, 2019. "Financial Structure and Systemic Risk of Banks: Evidence from Chinese Reform," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(13), pages 1-22, July.
    13. Chaibi, Hasna & Ftiti, Zied, 2015. "Credit risk determinants: Evidence from a cross-country study," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 1-16.
    14. Louzis, Dimitrios P. & Vouldis, Angelos T. & Metaxas, Vasilios L., 2012. "Macroeconomic and bank-specific determinants of non-performing loans in Greece: A comparative study of mortgage, business and consumer loan portfolios," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1012-1027.
    15. Carlson Mark A & King Thomas & Lewis Kurt, 2011. "Distress in the Financial Sector and Economic Activity," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-31, June.
    16. Pallavi Chavan & Leonardo Gambacorta, 2019. "Bank lending and loan quality: an emerging economy perspective," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(1), pages 1-29, July.
    17. Dale F. Gray & Robert C. Merton & Zvi Bodie, 2007. "New Framework for Measuring and Managing Macrofinancial Risk and Financial Stability," NBER Working Papers 13607, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Mr. Mark Swinburne & Stéphanie Marie Stolz & Ms. Marina Moretti, 2008. "Stress Testing at the IMF," IMF Working Papers 2008/206, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Bezemer, Dirk & Zhang, Lu, 2014. "How the credit cycle affects growth," Research Report 14026-GEM, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
    20. Wilson Sy, 2007. "A Causal Framework for Credit Default Theory," Research Paper Series 204, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.

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