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Measures of Systemic Risk and Financial Fragility in Korea

Author

Listed:
  • Jong Han Lee

    (Marcroprudential Analysis Department, The Bank of Korea)

  • Jaemin Ryu

    (Marcroprudential Analysis Department, The Bank of Korea)

  • Dimitrios P. Tsomocos

    (Said Business School and St. Edmund Hall, University of Oxford)

Abstract

This paper provides a quantitative metric for financial stability of Korean banking system based on the Tsomocos (2003a, b) model, for which we use market data as proxies for probabilities of default and equity valuation of the banking sector. We estimate the effect of the probability of default and the equity valuation of the banking sector on real output in order to measure the financial fragility using a vector error correction model (VECM). In addition, we estimate the contributions of individual banks to systemic risk using CoVaR and MES (Marginal Expected Shortfall). CoVaR is estimated based on the methodology of Adrian and Brunnermeier (2010), and MES is estimated based on Shapley value methodology which has been introduced by Tarashev, Borio and Tsatsaronis (2010).

Suggested Citation

  • Jong Han Lee & Jaemin Ryu & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2012. "Measures of Systemic Risk and Financial Fragility in Korea," Working Papers 2012-12, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    • Handle: RePEc:bok:wpaper:1212
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Song, Jae Wook & Ko, Bonggyun & Cho, Poongjin & Chang, Woojin, 2016. "Time-varying causal network of the Korean financial system based on firm-specific risk premiums," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 458(C), pages 287-302.
    3. T. Bennani & C. Couaillier & A. Devulder & S. Gabrieli & J. Idier & P. Lopez & T. Piquard & V. Scalone, 2017. "An analytical framework to calibrate macroprudential policy," Working papers 648, Banque de France.
    4. Thomas F. Coleman & Alex LaPlante & Alexey Rubtsov, 2018. "Analysis of the SRISK measure and its application to the Canadian banking and insurance industries," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 14(4), pages 547-570, November.
    5. Mikhail Stolbov, 2017. "Assessing systemic risk and its determinants for advanced and major emerging economies: the case of ΔCoVaR," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 119-152, January.
    6. Samuel Mwangi Kiemo & Tobias O. Olweny & Willy M. Muturi & Lucy W. Mwangi, 2019. "Bank-Specific Determinants of Commercial Banks Financial Stability in Kenya," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 9(1), pages 1-5.
    7. Sarlin, Peter & Ramsay, Bruce A., 2014. "Ending over-lending : Assessing systemic risk with debt to cash flow," Research Discussion Papers 11/2014, Bank of Finland.
    8. Dissem, Sonia & Lobez, Frederic, 2020. "Correlation between the 2014 EU-wide stress tests and the market-based measures of systemic risk," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    9. Mansour Ishrakieh, Layal & Dagher, Leila & El Hariri, Sadika, 2018. "The Institute of Financial Economics Financial Stress Index (IFEFSI) for Lebanon," MPRA Paper 116054, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    11. Layal MansourIshrakieh & Leila Dagher & Sadika El Hariri, 2020. "A financial stress index for a highly dollarized developing country : The case of Lebanon," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 20(2), pages 43-52.
    12. Oh, Sekyung & Kee, Hyukdo & Park, Kinam, 2019. "Tail risk under price limits," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 113-123.
    13. Harun, Cicilia A. & Taruna, Aditya Anta & Ramdani,, 2021. "Capturing the nonlinear impact in distress state: Enhancing scenario design of stress test," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 265-288.
    14. Sarlin, Peter & Ramsay, Bruce A., 2014. "Ending over-lending: Assessing systemic risk with debt to cash flow," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 11/2014, Bank of Finland.
    15. J'ozsef Mezei & Peter Sarlin, 2016. "RiskRank: Measuring interconnected risk," Papers 1601.06204, arXiv.org.
    16. Cevik, Emrah I. & Dibooglu, Sel & Kenc, Turalay, 2016. "Financial stress and economic activity in some emerging Asian economies," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 127-139.
    17. Morni, Fareiny & Masih, Mansur, 2017. "Predicting stress in the banking sector: Malaysian evidence," MPRA Paper 108445, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    19. Sarlin, Peter & Ramsay, Bruce A., 2015. "Ending over-lending: assessing systemic risk with debt to cash flow," Working Paper Series 1769, European Central Bank.
    20. Silva, Walmir & Kimura, Herbert & Sobreiro, Vinicius Amorim, 2017. "An analysis of the literature on systemic financial risk: A survey," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 91-114.
    21. Mansour-Ichrakieh, Layal & Zeaiter, Hussein, 2019. "The role of geopolitical risks on the Turkish economy opportunity or threat," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial Stability; Systemic Risk; JPoD; CoVaR; MES; Shapley value;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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