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How Well Do Aggregate Bank Ratios Identify Banking Problems?

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Martin Cihak
  • Mr. Klaus Schaeck

Abstract

The paper provides an empirical analysis of aggregate banking system ratios during systemic banking crises. Drawing upon a wide cross-country dataset, we utilize parametric and nonparametric tests to assess the power of these ratios to discriminate between sound and unsound banking systems. We also estimate a duration model to investigate whether the ratios help determine the timing of a banking crisis. Despite some weaknesses in the available data, our findings offer initial evidence that some indicators are precursors for the likelihood and timing of systemic banking problems. Nevertheless, we caution against sole reliance on these indicators and advocate supplementing them with other tools and techniques.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Martin Cihak & Mr. Klaus Schaeck, 2007. "How Well Do Aggregate Bank Ratios Identify Banking Problems?," IMF Working Papers 2007/275, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2007/275
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Tsionas, Efthymios G. & Assaf, A. George & Matousek, Roman, 2015. "Dynamic technical and allocative efficiencies in European banking," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 130-139.
    2. De Jonghe, Olivier, 2010. "Back to the basics in banking? A micro-analysis of banking system stability," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 387-417, July.
    3. Honohan, Patrick, 2008. "Risk Management and the Costs of the Banking Crisis," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 206, pages 15-24, October.
    4. Schou-Zibell, Lotte & Albert, Jose Ramon & Song, Lei Lei, 2010. "A Macroprudential Framework for Monitoring and Examining Financial Soundness," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration 43, Asian Development Bank.
    5. De Jonghe, O.G., 2009. "Back to Basics in Banking? A Micro-Analysis of Banking System Stability," Discussion Paper 2009-45 S, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    6. Tigran Poghosyan & Martin Čihak, 2011. "Determinants of Bank Distress in Europe: Evidence from a New Data Set," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 163-184, December.
    7. Mariña Martínez-Malvar & Laura Baselga-Pascual, 2020. "Bank Risk Determinants in Latin America," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-20, September.
    8. Mr. Daniel C Hardy & Mr. Christian Schmieder, 2013. "Rules of Thumb for Bank Solvency Stress Testing," IMF Working Papers 2013/232, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Jong Lee & Jaemin Ryu & Dimitrios Tsomocos, 2013. "Measures of systemic risk and financial fragility in Korea," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 9(4), pages 757-786, November.
    10. Lee, Chi-Chuan & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2019. "Oil price shocks and Chinese banking performance: Do country risks matter?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 46-53.
    11. Maria Kasselaki & Athanasios Tagkalakis, 2014. "Financial soundness indicators and financial crisis episodes," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 10(4), pages 623-669, November.
    12. Katarzyna Kubiszewska, 2018. "Interdependence of Ratios in Banking Stability Pentagon (Wspolzaleznosc wskaznikow w Pieciokacie Stabilnosci Bankowej)," Research Reports, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management, vol. 2(28), pages 65-79.
    13. Tagkalakis, Athanasios O., 2014. "Financial stability indicators and public debt developments," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 158-179.
    14. Patrick Honohan, 2009. "Bank Failures: The Limitations of Risk Modeling," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Douglas D Evanoff & Philipp Hartmann & George G Kaufman (ed.), The First Credit Market Turmoil Of The 21st Century Implications for Public Policy, chapter 8, pages 103-123, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    15. Cihák, Martin & Schaeck, Klaus, 2010. "How well do aggregate prudential ratios identify banking system problems?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 130-144, September.
    16. Radu Muntean, 2009. "Early Warning Models for Banking Supervision in Romania," Advances in Economic and Financial Research - DOFIN Working Paper Series 39, Bucharest University of Economics, Center for Advanced Research in Finance and Banking - CARFIB.
    17. Dr. Rezarta Shkurti (Perri) & Dr. Brunilda Duraj, 2010. "The Assessment Of The Financial Soundness Of The Banking Sectors In Balkan Countries Using "Early Warning Indicators" - A Comparative Study With Policy Implications," Journal Articles, Center For Economic Analyses, pages 33-48, June.
    18. Mr. Tigran Poghosyan & Mr. Martin Cihak, 2009. "Distress in European Banks: An Analysis Basedon a New Dataset," IMF Working Papers 2009/009, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Sayyed Mahdi Ziaei, 2017. "Effects of Financial Soundness and Openness on Financial Development," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 20(04), pages 1-14, December.
    20. Marcin Pietrzak, 2021. "Can Financial Soundness Indicators Help Predict Financial Sector Distress?," IMF Working Papers 2021/197, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Tao Sun, 2011. "Identifying Vulnerabilities in Systemically-Important Financial Institutions in a Macro-Financial Linkages Framework," IMF Working Papers 2011/111, International Monetary Fund.
    22. Martin Cihak, 2009. "Financial Crisis (introduction)," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 59(6), pages 502-506, December.
    23. De Jonghe, O.G., 2009. "Back to Basics in Banking? A Micro-Analysis of Banking System Stability," Other publications TiSEM 9650fd91-53ee-4ed5-9786-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    24. Hamdaoui, Mekki, 2016. "Are systemic banking crises in developed and developing countries predictable?," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 37, pages 114-138.

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