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The twin crises: The causes of banking and balance of payments problems

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Author Info
Reinhart, Carmen
Kaminsky, Graciela

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Abstract

In the wake of the Mexican and Asian currency turmoil, the subject of financial crises has come to the forefront of academic and policy discussions. This paper analyzes the links between banking and currency crises. We find that: problems in the banking sector typically precede a currency crisis--the currency crisis deepens the banking crisis, activating a vicious spiral; financial liberalization often precedes banking crises. The anatomy of these episodes suggests that crises occur as the economy enters a recession, following a prolonged boom in economic activity that was fueled by credit, capital inflows and accompanied by an overvalued currency.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/14081/
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 14081.

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Date of creation: Jun 1999
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Publication status: Published in American Economic Review 3.89(1999): pp. 473-500
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:14081

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Related research
Keywords: banking crises credit currency crash stock prices capital flows exports recession;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose & Charles Wyplosz, 1996. "Contagious Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 5681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Diaz-Alejandro, Carlos, 1985. "Good-bye financial repression, hello financial crash," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 1-24. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1996. "Models of Currency Crises with Self-fulfilling Features," CEPR Discussion Papers 1315, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Charles W. Calomiris & Gary Gorton, . "The Origins of Banking Panics: Models, Facts, and Bank Regulation," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 11-90, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    Other versions:
  5. Calvo, Guillermo A & Mendoza, Enrique G, 1996. "Petty Crime and Cruel Punishment: Lessons from the Mexican Debacle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 170-75, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Blanco, Herminio & Garber, Peter M, 1986. "Recurrent Devaluation and Speculative Attacks on the Mexican Peso," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(1), pages 148-66, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1998. "High real interest rates in the aftermath of disinflation: is it a lack of credibility?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 191-214, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Maurice Obstfeld, 1994. "The Logic of Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 4640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Diebold, Francis X & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1989. "Scoring the Leading Indicators," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(3), pages 369-91, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1997. "Understanding Financial Crises: A Developing Country Perspective," NBER Working Papers 5600, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Reinhart, Carmen & Reinhart, Vincent, 1996. "Forecasting turning points in Canada," MPRA Paper 13884, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  12. Stock, J.H. & Watson, M.W., 1989. "New Indexes Of Coincident And Leading Economic Indicators," Papers 178d, Harvard - J.F. Kennedy School of Government.
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  13. Miller, Victoria, 2000. "Central bank reactions to banking crises in fixed exchange rate regimes," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 451-472, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  15. Reinhart, Carmen & Vegh, Carlos, 1999. "Do Exchange Rate-Based Stabilizations Carry the Seeds of Their Own Destruction?," MPRA Paper 8952, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  16. Guillermo A. Calvo, 1995. "Varieties of Capital-Market Crises," RES Working Papers 4008, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  17. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Sara, 1996. "Capital Flows to Latin America: Is There Evidence of Contagion Effects?”," MPRA Paper 7124, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  18. Gorton, Gary, 1988. "Banking Panics and Business Cycles," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 40(4), pages 751-81, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Velasco, Andres, 1987. "Financial crises and balance of payments crises : A simple model of the southern cone experience," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1-2), pages 263-283, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Vicente Galbis, 1993. "High Real Interest Rates Under Financial Liberalization: Is There a Problem?," IMF Working Papers 93/7, International Monetary Fund.
  21. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-25, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Guillermo Calvo & Carmen Reinhart & Leonardo Leiderman, 1992. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," IMF Working Papers 92/62, International Monetary Fund.
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