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Balance of Payments Crises and Capital Flows: The Role of Liquidity

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Author Info
Ilan Goldfajn
Rodrigo Valdés
Abstract

A model of external crises is developed focusing on the interaction between liquidity creation by financial intermediaries and foreign exchange collapses. The intermediaries' role of transforming maturities is shown to result in larger movements of capital and a higher probability of crises. This resembles the observed cycle in capital flows: large inflows, crises and abrupt outflows. The model highlights how adverse productivity and international interest rate shocks can be magnified by the behavior of individual foreign investors linked together through their deposits in the intermediaries. An eventual collapse of the exchange rate can link investors' behavior even further.

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Paper provided by Central Bank of Chile in its series Working Papers Central Bank of Chile with number 11.

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Date of creation: Mar 1997
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Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:11

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  1. Michael P. Dooley, 1997. "Apertura financiera y retos de políticas," RES Working Papers 4103, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  2. Pierre-Richard Agenor & Joshua Aizenman, 1997. "Contagion and Volatility with Imperfect Credit Markets," NBER Working Papers 6080, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Miguel A. Kiguel & Alain Ize & Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2005. "Managing Systemic Liquidity Risk in Financially Dollarized Economies," IMF Working Papers 05/188, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  4. Alain Ize & Miguel Kiguel & Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2005. "Managing Systemic Liquidity Risk in Financially Dollarized Economy," Business School Working Papers managsystrisk, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella. [Downloadable!]
  5. Michael P. Dooley & Inseok Shin, 2000. "Private Inflows when Crises are Anticipated: A Case Study of Korea," NBER Working Papers 7992, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Michael P. Dooley, 1997. "Financial Liberalization and Policy Challenges," RES Working Papers 4102, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  7. Shankar, Rashmi, 2002. "Distinguishing between observationally equivalent theories of crises," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2926, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  8. Claudio Soto & Alberto Naudon & Eduardo López & Alvaro Aguirre, 2004. "Acerca del Nivel Adecuado de las Reservas Internacionales," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 267, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  9. Shankar, Rashmi, 2005. "Insurance and liquidity : panel evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3648, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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