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Acerca del Nivel Adecuado de las Reservas Internacionales

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  • Claudio Soto
  • Alberto Naudon
  • Eduardo López
  • Alvaro Aguirre

Abstract

Under a flexible exchange rate regime international reserves contribute to reducing the risk of a financial crisis, and allow the monetary authority to exceptionally intervene in the exchange market. However, holding reserves is costly. In this paper, we analyze several issues concerning the adequate level of Chilean international reserves. In the first place, we compare the level of Chile’s international reserves with those of different sets of countries using various indicators. We then analyze empirically some of the benefits and costs of holding reserves. Our results show that Chile’s international reserves are high when measured with respect to GDP or M2, but they are in line with those of countries of similar characteristics when measured as a fraction of short-term residual debt. On the other hand, given the low risk of the Chilean economy, marginal changes in reserves have a very low impact on both the probability of a financial crisis and the sovereign spread of the country. Finally, as the sovereign spread has decreased over the last years, so too has the cost of reserves. In fact, by the end of 2002, and despite having a high reserves-to-GDP ratio, the cost of reserves as a fraction of GDP was considerably lower than the cost of other emerging economies.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Central Bank of Chile in its series Working Papers Central Bank of Chile with number 267.

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Date of creation: Jul 2004
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Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:267

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  1. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2004. "The modern history of exchange rate arrangements: A reinterpretation," MPRA Paper 14070, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Ilan Goldfajn & Rodrigo Valdés, 1997. "Balance of Payments Crises and Capital Flows: The Role of Liquidity," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 11, Central Bank of Chile.
  3. W. R. M. Perraudin & Manmohan S. Kumar & Uma Moorthy, 2002. "Predicting Emerging Market Currency Crashes," IMF Working Papers 02/7, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: an empirical treatment," International Finance Discussion Papers 534, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  5. Gian Maria Milesi Ferretti & Assaf Razin, 2000. "Current Account Reversals and Currency Crises: Empirical Regularities," NBER Chapters, in: Currency Crises, pages 285-323 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Hong G. Min, 1998. "Determinants of emerging market bond spread : do economic fundamentals matter?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1899, The World Bank.
  7. Frenkel, Jacob A & Jovanovic, Boyan, 1981. "Optimal International Reserves: A Stochastic Framework," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 91(362), pages 507-14, June.
  8. Fernandez-Arias, Eduardo, 1996. "The new wave of private capital inflows: Push or pull?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 389-418, March.
  9. Olivier Jeanne & Charles Wyplosz, 2003. "The International Lender of Last Resort. How Large Is Large Enough?," NBER Chapters, in: Managing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 89-124 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Matías Tapia & Andrea Tokman, 2003. "Efectos de las intervenciones en el mercado cambiario: el caso de Chile," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 30(1 Year 20), pages 21-53, June.
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Cited by:
  1. Martín Redrado & Jorge Carrera & Diego Bastourre & Javier Ibarlucia (ed.), 2006. "The Economic Policy of Foreign Reserve Accumulation: New International Evidence," BCRA Paper Series, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department, number 02, June.
  2. Gabriela Contreras & Alejandro Jara & Eduardo Olaberría & Diego Saravia, 2012. "On the Level of International Reserves in Chile: an Analysis Based on Complementary Approaches," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 15(3), pages 40-63, December.
  3. Martín Redrado & Jorge Carrera & Diego Bastourre & Javier Ibarlucia, 2006. "The Economic Policy of Foreign Reserve Accumulation: New International Evidence," BCRA Working Paper Series 200614, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department.
  4. Kevin Cowan & Sebastián Edwards & Rodrigo O. Valdés, 2008. "Current Account and External Financing: An Introduction," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Kevin Cowan & Sebastián Edwards & Rodrigo O. Valdés & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmid (ed.), Current Account and External Financing, edition 1, volume 12, chapter 1, pages 001-023 Central Bank of Chile.
  5. Marco Antônio F. de H. Cavalcanti & Christian Vonbun, 2007. "Reservas internacionais ótimas para o Brasil: uma análise simples de custo-benefício para o período 1999-2007," Discussion Papers 1315, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
  6. Rodrigo Valdés P. & Kevin Cowan L. & Sebastián Edwards F., 2007. "Current Account and External Financing," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 10(3), pages 5-18, December.
  7. Gabriela Contreras & Alejandro Jara & Eduardo Olaberría & Diego Saravia, 2011. "Sobre el nivel de reservas internacionales de Chile: análisis a partir de enfoques complementarios," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 621, Central Bank of Chile.
  8. Antonio Francisco A. Silva Jr, 2011. "The Self-insurance Role of International Reserves and the 2008-2010 Crisis," Working Papers Series 256, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.

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