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Acerca del Nivel Adecuado de las Reservas Internacionales

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Author Info
Claudio Soto
Alberto Naudon
Eduardo López
Alvaro Aguirre

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Abstract

Under a flexible exchange rate regime international reserves contribute to reducing the risk of a financial crisis, and allow the monetary authority to exceptionally intervene in the exchange market. However, holding reserves is costly. In this paper, we analyze several issues concerning the adequate level of Chilean international reserves. In the first place, we compare the level of Chile’s international reserves with those of different sets of countries using various indicators. We then analyze empirically some of the benefits and costs of holding reserves. Our results show that Chile’s international reserves are high when measured with respect to GDP or M2, but they are in line with those of countries of similar characteristics when measured as a fraction of short-term residual debt. On the other hand, given the low risk of the Chilean economy, marginal changes in reserves have a very low impact on both the probability of a financial crisis and the sovereign spread of the country. Finally, as the sovereign spread has decreased over the last years, so too has the cost of reserves. In fact, by the end of 2002, and despite having a high reserves-to-GDP ratio, the cost of reserves as a fraction of GDP was considerably lower than the cost of other emerging economies.

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Paper provided by Central Bank of Chile in its series Working Papers Central Bank of Chile with number 267.

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Date of creation: Jul 2004
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Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:267

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria & Razin, Assaf, 1998. "Current Account Reversals and Currency Crises: Empirical Regularities," CEPR Discussion Papers 1921, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Jeanne, Olivier & Wyplosz, Charles, 2001. "The International Lender of Last Resort: How Large is Large Enough?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2842, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Steven B. Kamin & Oliver D. Babson, 1999. "The contributions of domestic and external factors to Latin American devaluation crises: an early warning systems approach," International Finance Discussion Papers 645, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  4. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 1999. "Hedging and Financial Fragility in Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes," NBER Working Papers 7143, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Esteban Jadresic M. & Sergio Lehmann B., 2003. "Evaluación de Propuestas Recientes en Torno a la Arquitectura Financiera Internacional," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 6(3), pages 81-88, December. [Downloadable!]
  6. Pablo García, 1999. "Demand for Reserves Under International Capital Mobility," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 58, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  7. Ilan Goldfajn & Rodrigo Valdés, 1997. "Balance of Payments Crises and Capital Flows: The Role of Liquidity," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 11, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  8. Robert P. Flood & Nancy Peregrim Marion, 2002. "Holding International Reserves in an Era of High Capital Mobility," IMF Working Papers 02/62, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 1998. "Financial Fragility and the Exchange Rate Regime," NBER Working Papers 6469, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Joshua Aizenman & Nancy Marion, 1999. "Reserve Uncertainty and the Supply of International Credit," NBER Working Papers 7202, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2002. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," NBER Working Papers 8963, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 1999. "Liquidity crises in emerging markets: Theory and policy," Working Paper 99-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Calvo, Guillermo A, 1996. "Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Management: Tequila Lessons," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 1(3), pages 207-23, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Joshua Aizenman & Nancy P. Marion, 2002. "The high demand for international reserves in the Far East: what's going on?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Sep. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Fernando Aportela & Francisco Gallego & Pablo García, 2003. "Reserves Over the Transitions to Floating and to Inflation Targeting: Lessons From the Developed World," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 211, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  17. Frenkel, Jacob A & Jovanovic, Boyan, 1981. "Optimal International Reserves: A Stochastic Framework," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 91(362), pages 507-14, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Fernandez-Arias, Eduardo, 1996. "The new wave of private capital inflows: Push or pull?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 389-418, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Matías Tapia & Andrea Tokman, 2003. "Efectos de las intervenciones en el mercado cambiario: el caso de Chile," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 30(1 Year 20), pages 21-53, June. [Downloadable!]
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  20. Kruger, Mark & Osakwe, Patrick N. & Page, Jennifer, 1998. "Fundamentals, Contagion and Currency Crises: An Empirical Analysis," Working Papers 98-10, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  21. Joshua Aizenman & Nancy P. Marion, 2002. "International Reserve Holdings with Sovereign Risk and Costly Tax Collection," NBER Working Papers 9154, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  22. Guillermo A. Calvo, 1996. "Capital flows and macroeconomic management: tequila lessons," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 96-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  23. Enrica Detragiache & Antonio Spilimbergo, 2001. "Crises and Liquidity - Evidence and Interpretation," IMF Working Papers 01/2, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Kevin Cowan & Sebastián Edwards & Rodrigo Valdés, 2007. "Current Account and External Financing: An Introduction," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 439, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  2. Marco Antônio F. de H. Cavalcanti & Christian Vonbun, 2007. "Reservas internacionais ótimas para o Brasil: uma análise simples de custo-benefício para o período 1999-2007," Discussion Papers 1315, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA. [Downloadable!]
  3. Luís Antonio Ahumada & Jorge Selaive C., 2007. "Desarrollo del mercado de derivados cambiarios en Chile," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Ilades-Georgetown University, Economics Department, vol. 22(1), pages 35-58, June. [Downloadable!]
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