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Hedging and financial fragility in fixed exchange rate regimes

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Author Info
Craig Burnside
Martin Eichenbaum
Sergio Rebelo

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Abstract

Currency crises that coincide with banking crises tend to share four elements. First, governments provide guarantees to domestic and foreign bank creditors. Second, banks do not hedge their exchange rate risk. Third, there is a lending boom before the crises. Finally, when the currency/banking collapse occurs interest rates rise and there is a persistent decline in output. This paper proposes an explanation for these regularities. We show that government guarantees lower interest rates, and generate an economic boom. But they also lead to a more fragile banking system: banks choose not to hedge exchange rate risk. When the fixed exchange rate is abandoned in favor of a crawling peg banks go bankrupt, the domestic interest rate rises, real wages fall and output declines.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago in its series Working Paper Series with number WP-99-11.

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Date of creation: 1999
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhwp:wp-99-11

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Keywords: Foreign exchange rates ; Hedging (Finance) ; Interest rates;

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  3. Chang, R. & Velasco, A., 1999. "Liquidity Crises in Emerging Markets: Theory and Policy," Working Papers 99-14, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Sebastian Edwards & Carlos A. Vegh, 1997. "Banks and Macroeconomics Disturbances under Predetermined Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 5977, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Michael Gavin & Ricardo Hausmann, 1996. "The Roots of Banking Crises: The Macroeconomic Context," RES Working Papers 4026, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Maurice Obstfeld, 1998. "The Global Capital Market: Benefactor or Menace?," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series 1026, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley. [Downloadable!]
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  8. George A. Akerlof & Paul M. Romer, 1993. "Looting: The Economic Underworld of Bankruptcy for Profit," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 24(1993-2), pages 1-74. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Guillermo A. Calvo & Allan Drazen, 1997. "Uncertain Duration of Reform: Dynamic Implications," NBER Working Papers 5925, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Atish R. Ghosh & A. Javier Hamann & Timothy D. Lane & Steven Phillips & Marianne Schulze-Gattas & T. M. Tsikata, 1999. "IMF-Supported Programs in Indonesia, Korea and Thailand," IMF Occasional Papers 178, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Rui Albuquerque, 2004. "Optimal Currency Hedging," Finance 0405010, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Merton, Robert C., 1977. "An analytic derivation of the cost of deposit insurance and loan guarantees An application of modern option pricing theory," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 3-11, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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