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The modern history of exchange rate arrangements: A reinterpretation

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  • Reinhart, Carmen
  • Rogoff, Kenneth

Abstract

We develop a novel system of reclassifying historical exchange rate regimes. One key difference between our study and previous classifications is that we employ monthly data on market-determined parallel exchange rates going back to 1946 for 153 countries. Our approach differs from the IMF official classification (which we show to be only a little better than random), it also differs radically from all previous attempts at historical reclassification. Our classification points to a rethinking of economic performance under alternative exchange rate regimes. Indeed, the breakup of Bretton Woods had less impact on exchange rate regimes than is popularly believed.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 14070.

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Date of creation: Feb 2004
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Publication status: Published in Quarterly Journal of Economics 1.CXIX(2004): pp. 1-48
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:14070

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Keywords: exchange rates pegs parallel markets floating currency crashes;

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References

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  1. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo, 2002. "Fear of floating," MPRA Paper 14000, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Masson, Paul R., 2001. "Exchange rate regime transitions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 571-586, April.
  3. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2004. "The modern history of exchange rate arrangements: A reinterpretation," MPRA Paper 14070, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Glick, R., 2000. "Fixed or Floating: Is It Still Possible to Manage in the Middle?," Papers pb00-02, Economisch Institut voor het Midden en Kleinbedrijf-.
  5. Michael D. Bordo, 2003. "Exchange Rate Regime Choice in Historical Perspective," IMF Working Papers 03/160, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Baxter, Marianne & Stockman, Alan C., 1989. "Business cycles and the exchange-rate regime : Some international evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 377-400, May.
  7. Levy-Yeyati, Eduardo & Sturzenegger, Federico, 2005. "Classifying exchange rate regimes: Deeds vs. words," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1603-1635, August.
  8. Baxter, M. & Stockman, A.C., 1988. "Business Cycles And The Exchange Rate System: Some International Evidence," RCER Working Papers 140, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  9. Peter Wickham, 2002. "Do "Flexible" Exchange Rates of Developing Countries Behave Like the Floating Exchange Rates of Industrialized Countries?," IMF Working Papers 02/82, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Marion, Nancy P, 1994. "Dual Exchange Rates in Europe and Latin America," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 8(2), pages 213-45, May.
  11. Luca Dedola & Sylvain Leduc, 2001. "Why is the Business-Cycle Behavior of Fundamentals Alike Across Exchange-Rate Regimes?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 411, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  12. Robert P. Flood & Andrew K. Rose, 1993. "Fixing Exchange Rates: A Virtual Quest for Fundamentals," NBER Working Papers 4503, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Atish R. Ghosh & Anne-Marie Gulde & Jonathan D. Ostry & Holger C. Wolf, 1997. "Does the Nominal Exchange Rate Regime Matter?," NBER Working Papers 5874, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Michael D. Bordo, 1992. "The Bretton Woods International Monetary System: An Historical Overview," NBER Working Papers 4033, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: an empirical treatment," International Finance Discussion Papers 534, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  16. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Miteza, Ilir & Nasir, A. B. M., 2002. "The long-run relation between black market and official exchange rates: evidence from panel cointegration," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 397-404, August.
  17. Chen, Yu-chin & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2003. "Commodity currencies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 133-160, May.
  18. Agathe Cote, . "Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade: A Survey," Working Papers 94-5, Bank of Canada.
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