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The modern history of exchange rate arrangements: A reinterpretation

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  • Reinhart, Carmen
  • Rogoff, Kenneth

Abstract

We develop a novel system of reclassifying historical exchange rate regimes. One key difference between our study and previous classifications is that we employ monthly data on market-determined parallel exchange rates going back to 1946 for 153 countries. Our approach differs from the IMF official classification (which we show to be only a little better than random), it also differs radically from all previous attempts at historical reclassification. Our classification points to a rethinking of economic performance under alternative exchange rate regimes. Indeed, the breakup of Bretton Woods had less impact on exchange rate regimes than is popularly believed.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 14070.

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Date of creation: Feb 2004
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Publication status: Published in Quarterly Journal of Economics 1.CXIX(2004): pp. 1-48
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:14070

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Keywords: exchange rates pegs parallel markets floating currency crashes;

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References

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  1. Agathe Cote, . "Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade: A Survey," Working Papers 94-5, Bank of Canada.
  2. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear Of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408, May.
  3. Masson, Paul R., 2001. "Exchange rate regime transitions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 571-586, April.
  4. Robert P. Flood & Andrew K. Rose, 1993. "Fixing Exchange Rates: A Virtual Quest for Fundamentals," NBER Working Papers 4503, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Atish R. Ghosh & Anne-Marie Gulde & Jonathan D. Ostry & Holger C. Wolf, 1997. "Does The Nominal Exchange Rate Regime Matter?," Working Papers 97-09, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  6. Dedola, Luca & Leduc, Sylvain, 2001. "Why Is the Business-Cycle Behaviour of Fundamentals Alike across Exchange-Rate Regimes?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(4), pages 401-19, October.
  7. Michael D. Bordo, 2003. "Exchange Rate Regime Choice in Historical Perspective," IMF Working Papers 03/160, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Chen, Yu-chin & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2003. "Commodity currencies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 133-160, May.
  9. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2002. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," NBER Working Papers 8963, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Peter Wickham, 2002. "Do "Flexible" Exchange Rates of Developing Countries Behave Like the Floating Exchange Rates of Industrialized Countries?," IMF Working Papers 02/82, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November.
  12. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Miteza, Ilir & Nasir, A. B. M., 2002. "The long-run relation between black market and official exchange rates: evidence from panel cointegration," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 397-404, August.
  13. Michael D. Bordo, 1993. "The Bretton Woods International Monetary System: A Historical Overview," NBER Chapters, in: A Retrospective on the Bretton Woods System: Lessons for International Monetary Reform, pages 3-108 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Levy-Yeyati, Eduardo & Sturzenegger, Federico, 2005. "Classifying exchange rate regimes: Deeds vs. words," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1603-1635, August.
  15. Marion, Nancy P, 1994. "Dual Exchange Rates in Europe and Latin America," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 8(2), pages 213-45, May.
  16. Baxter, M. & Stockman, A.C., 1988. "Business Cycles And The Exchange Rate System: Some International Evidence," RCER Working Papers 140, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  17. Reuven Glick, 2000. "Fixed or floating: is it still possible to manage in the middle?," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 2000-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  18. Baxter, Marianne & Stockman, Alan C., 1989. "Business cycles and the exchange-rate regime : Some international evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 377-400, May.
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