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Why Is the Business Cycle Behavior of Fundamentals Alike Across Exchange Rate Regimes?

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Author Info
Sylvain Leduc (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia)

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Abstract

This paper develops a two-country, two-sector general equilibrium business cycle model with nominal rigidities featuring deviations from the law of one price. We show that a model with such building blocks can quantitatively account for the empirical fact that, of the statistical properties of most macroeconomic variables, only the volatility of the real and nominal exchange rates has dramatically changed after the fall of the Bretton Woods system. In particular, we replicate some explicit benchmark tests proposed in the literature (for instance, by Flood and Rose (1995)) with simulated data from our artificial economy. The presence of firms pricing-to-market and different speeds of price adjustment across sectors is important in generating the results. We show that these features dampen the upward impact of monetary policy shocks, following the introduction of a flexible exchange rate regime, on the volatility of output, consumption and especially net exports. In our model, the increase in the volatility of the real exchange rate, when the currency floats is due to an increase in the covariance of relative prices across countries. Since the variance of relative prices is not affected by the exchange rate regime, neither is that of most other macroeconomic variables.

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Paper provided by Econometric Society in its series Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers with number 1843.

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Date of creation: 01 Aug 2000
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Handle: RePEc:ecm:wc2000:1843

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  25. Beverly J. Lapham, 1990. "A Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis of Deviations from the Laws of One Price," Working Papers 793, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
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  33. Bennett T. McCallum & Edward Nelson, 2000. "An Optimizing IS-LM Specification for Monetary Policy and Business Cycle Analysis," NBER Working Papers 5875, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  34. Kollmann, Robert, 1995. "Consumption, real exchange rates and the structure of international asset markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 191-211, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  35. Rotemberg, Julio J., 1996. "Prices, output, and hours: An empirical analysis based on a sticky price model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 505-533, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Dedola, Luca & Leduc, Sylvain, 2005. "DSGE Models of High Exchange-Rate Volatility and Low Pass-Through," CEPR Discussion Papers 5377, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Riccardo Cristadoro & Andrea Gerali & Stefano Neri & Massimiliano Pisani, 2006. "Nominal Rigidities in an Estimated Two Country," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 162, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Reinhart, Carmen, 2002. "A Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: Parallel Markets and Dual and Multiple Exchange Rates," MPRA Paper 13194, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  4. Riccardo Cristadoro & Andrea Gerali & Stefano Neri & Massimiliano Pisani, 2008. "Real exchange rate volatility and disconnect: an empirical investigation," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 660, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  5. Theptida Sopraseuth, 2003. "Exchange Rate Regimes and International Business Cycles," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(2), pages 338-361, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2002. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," NBER Working Papers 8963, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Monica Paiella, 2001. "Limited Financial Market Participation: A Transaction Cost-Based Explanation," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 415, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Reinhart, Carmen, 2002. "A Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: Chartbook, 1946-2001," MPRA Paper 13192, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  9. Reinhart, Carmen, 2002. "A Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: The Country Histories, 1946-2001," MPRA Paper 13191, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  10. Kollmann, Robert, 2002. "Monetary Policy Rules in the Open Economy: Effects on Welfare and Business Cycles," CEPR Discussion Papers 3279, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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