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Real Exchange Rate Variability under Pegged and Floating Nominal Exchange Rate Systems: An Equilibrium Theory

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Alan C. Stockman

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Abstract

This paper proposes a new explanation for the greater variability of real exchange rates under pegged than under floating nominal exchange rate systems. The explanation hinges on the propensity of governments to use international trade restrictions and financial restrictions for balance-of-payments purposes under pegged exchange rates. In particular. these restrictions become more likely during periods of time when countries suffer losses of international reserves than might. without policy changes. lead to a balance-of-payments crisis. This covariation of restrictions with reserve changes implies that real exchange rates will vary less under pegged than under floating exchange rates.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 2565.

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Date of creation: Jun 1990
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2565

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  1. Andrés Felipe Arias & Hernando Zuleta, 1997. "Tasa de Cambio Real e Inversión. La Experiencia de 1990-1996," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003537, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1993. "Some Empirical Evidence on the Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 4271, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. John H. Rogers, 1998. "Monetary shocks and real exchange rates," International Finance Discussion Papers 612, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  4. Barry Eichengreen, 1992. "Three Perspectives on the Bretton Woods System," NBER Working Papers 4141, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Cheng, Fuzhi & Orden, David, 2005. "Exchange rate misalignment and its effects on agricultural producer support estimates," MTID discussion papers 81, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). [Downloadable!]
  6. John H. Rogers, 1995. "Real shocks and real exchange rates in really long-term data," International Finance Discussion Papers 493, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  7. Sylvain Leduc, 2000. "Why Is the Business Cycle Behavior of Fundamentals Alike Across Exchange Rate Regimes?," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1843, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Alan C. Stockman, 1992. "International Transmission Under Bretton Woods," NBER Working Papers 4127, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Ronald Macdonald, 1999. "Asset Market and Balance of Payments Characteristics: An Eclectic Exchange Rate Model for the Dollar, Mark and Yen," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 5-29, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Mark S Astley & Anthony Garratt, . "Exchange rates and prices: sources of sterling real exchange rate fluctuations 1973-94," Bank of England working papers 85, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  11. Christian Zimmermann, 1994. "International Business Cycles and Exchange Rates," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 33, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal, revised Jul 1997. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Michael D. Bordo & Lars Jonung, 1996. "Monetary Regimes, Inflation And Monetary Reform: An Essay in Honor of Axel Leijonhufvud," Departmental Working Papers 199407, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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