Money, Prices, Interest Rates and the Business Cycle
AbstractThe mechanisms governing the relationship of money, prices and interest rates to the business cycle are the most studied and most disputed topics in macroeconomics. In this paper, we first document key empirical aspects of this relationship. We then ask how well three benchmark rational expectations macroeconomic models--real business cycle model, a sticky price model and a liquidity effect model--account for these central facts. While the models have diverse successes and failures, none can account for the fact that real and nominal interest rates are 'inverted leading indicators' of real economic activity. That is, none of the models captures the post-war U.S. business cycle fact that a high real or nominal interest rate in the current quarter predicts a low level of real economic activity two to four quarters in the future. Copyright 1996 by MIT Press.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by MIT Press in its journal Review of Economics & Statistics.
Volume (Year): 78 (1996)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://mitpress.mit.edu/journals/
Other versions of this item:
- Robert G. King & Mark W. Watson, 1995. "Money, prices, interest rates and the business cycle," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago 95-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Robert S. Chirinko, 1992.
"Business Fixed Investment Spending: A Critical survey of Modeling Strategies, Empirical Results, and Policy Implications,"
Working Papers, Harris School of Public Policy Studies, University of Chicago
9213, Harris School of Public Policy Studies, University of Chicago.
- Robert S. Chirinko, 1993. "Business fixed investment spending: a critical survey of modeling strategies, empirical results, and policy implications," Research Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City 93-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Robert G. King & Charles I. Plosser & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1991.
"Stochastic trends and economic fluctuations,"
Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
91-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1991. "Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 819-40, September.
- Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-11, July.
- Gray, Jo Anna, 1978. "On Indexation and Contract Length," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(1), pages 1-18, February.
- Soderlind, Paul, 1994. "Cyclical Properties of a Real Business Cycle Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(S), pages S113-22, Suppl. De.
- Fuerst, Timothy S., 1992. "Liquidity, loanable funds, and real activity," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 3-24, February.
Blog mentionsAs found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
- Michael Woodford: Revolución y Evolución en la Macroeconomía del siglo XX
by Enrique Bour in Foco Económico on 2011-03-16 12:00:00
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page. reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Karie Kirkpatrick).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.