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Shocks

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  • Cochrane, John H.

Abstract

What are the shocks that drive economic fluctuations? I examine technology and money shocks in some detail, and briefly review the evidence on oil price and credit shocks. I conclude that none of these popular candidates accounts for the bulk of economic fluctuations. I then examine whether 'consumption shocks,' news that agents see but we do not, can account for fluctuations. I find that it may be possible to construct models with this feature, though it is more difficult than is commonly realized. If this view is correct, we will forever remain ignorant of the fundamental causes of economic fluctuations.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy.

Volume (Year): 41 (1994)
Issue (Month): 1 (December)
Pages: 295-364

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Handle: RePEc:eee:crcspp:v:41:y:1994:i::p:295-364

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References

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Cited by:
  1. Chen, Jinzhu & Kannan, Prakash & Loungani, Prakash & Trehan, Bharat, 2012. "New evidence on cyclical and structural sources of unemployment," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue March, pages 1-23.
  2. Makoto Nirei, 2004. "Lumpy Investment, Sectoral Propagation, and Business Cycles," 2004 Meeting Papers 774, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  3. Thapar, Aditi, 2008. "Using private forecasts to estimate the effects of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 806-824, May.
  4. Prakash Loungani & Bharat Trehan, 1997. "Explaining unemployment: sectoral vs aggregate shocks," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-15.
  5. Christian Ragacs & Martin Zagler, 2002. "Persistence of Shocks to Output in Austria and Theories of Economic Growth," Empirica, Springer, vol. 29(4), pages 305-317, December.
  6. Eickmeier, Sandra, 2005. "Common stationary and non-stationary factors in the euro area analyzed in a large-scale factor model," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,02, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.

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