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Sources of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations: How Important are Nominal Shocks?

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Author Info
Richard Clarida
Jordi Gali

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Abstract

This paper investigates empirically and attempts to identify the sources of real exchange rate fluctuations since the collapse of Bretton Woods. The paper's first two sections survey and extend earlier, non-structural empirical work on this subject by Campbell and Clarida (1987), Meese and Rogoff (1988), and Cumby and Huizinga (1990). The paper's main contribution is to build and estimate a three equation open macro model in the spirit of Dornbusch (1976) and Obstfeld (1985) and to identify the model's structural shocks - to demand, supply, and money -using the approach pioneered by Blanchard and Quah (1989). For two of the four countries we study, Germany and Japan, our structural estimates imply that monetary shocks, to money supply as well as to the demand for real money balances, explain a substantial amount of the variance of real exchange rates relative to the dollar. We find that demand shocks, to national saving and investment, explain the majority of the variance in real exchange rate fluctuations, while supply shocks explain very little. The model's estimated short run dynamics are strikingly consistent with the predictions of the simple textbook Mundell-Fleming model.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 4658.

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Date of creation: Feb 1994
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:4658

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  6. Flood, Robert P., 1981. "Explanations of exchange-rate volatility and other empirical regularities in some popular models of the foreign exchange market," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 219-249, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Adler, Michael & Lehmann, Bruce, 1983. " Deviations from Purchasing Power Parity in the Long Run," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(5), pages 1471-87, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Robert E. Cumby & Maurice Obstfeld, 1985. "International Interest-Rate and Price-Level Linkages Under Flexible Exchalge Rates: A Review of Recent Evidence," NBER Working Papers 0921, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Mussa, Michael, 1982. "A Model of Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(1), pages 74-104, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Gali, Jordi, 1992. "How Well Does the IS-LM Model Fit Postwar U.S. Data," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(2), pages 709-38, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1993. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 644-52, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-73, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Meese, R. & Rogoff, K., 1988. "Was It Real? The Exchange Rate-Interest Differential Ralation Over The Modern Floating-Rate Period," Working papers 368, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
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  22. Robert G. King & Charles I. Plosser & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1992. "Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 2229, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  23. Evans, George W & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1993. "Information, Forecasts and Measurement of the Business Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 756, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  24. Allan H. Meltzer, 1993. "Real exchange rates: some evidence from the postwar years," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 103-117. [Downloadable!]
  25. Matthew D. Shapiro & Mark W. Watson, 1988. "Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 870, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  26. Edison, Hali J. & Pauls, B. Dianne, 1993. "A re-assessment of the relationship between real exchange rates and real interest rates: 1974-1990," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 165-187, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  27. Mussa, Michael, 1986. "Nominal exchange rate regimes and the behavior of real exchange rates: Evidence and implications," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 117-214, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  28. Gamber, Edward N & Joutz, Frederick L, 1993. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1387-93, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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