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Real shocks and real exchange rates in really long-term data

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Author Info
John H. Rogers

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Abstract

There is little consensus concerning the sources of fluctuations in real exchange rates. In this paper I assess the nature of the shocks that drive the real U.S. dollar-U.K. pound exchange rate, analyzing 130 years of data. I first show that wars, which are examples of a (transitory) real shock, are significant. I next use an alternative empirical approach, in which I identify various types of real and nominal shocks. I find that output shocks and monetary shocks account for approximately the same percentage of the variance of the real exchange rate over short horizons. The monetary shock is decomposed into monetary base and money multiplier shocks and the output shock is decomposed into supply and demand shocks. Essentially all of the effect of the combined output shock is due to the demand shock. The effect of the monetary shock is accounted for by both money multiplier shocks and monetary base shocks in roughly equal amounts. Thus, the paper suggests that the contributions of real and monetary shocks are roughly equal overall, while shedding light on the nature of those shocks.

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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number 493.

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Date of creation: 1995
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:493

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Keywords: Foreign exchange rates;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  3. Faust, Jon & Leeper, Eric M, 1997. "When Do Long-Run Identifying Restrictions Give Reliable Results?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(3), pages 345-53, July.
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  4. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi, 1994. "Sources of real exchange-rate fluctuations: How important are nominal shocks?," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 1-56, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Stock, James H., 1991. "Confidence intervals for the largest autoregressive root in U.S. macroeconomic time series," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 435-459, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Michael Klein, 1994. "The Real Exchange Rate and Fiscal Policy During the Gold Standard PeriodEvidence from the United States and Great Britain," NBER Working Papers 4809, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-72, August.
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  11. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Lastrapes, William D, 1992. "Sources of Fluctuations in Real and Nominal Exchange Rates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(3), pages 530-39, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Charles Engel & John H. Rogers, 1995. "How wide is the border?," Research Working Paper 95-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Adler, Michael & Lehmann, Bruce, 1983. " Deviations from Purchasing Power Parity in the Long Run," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(5), pages 1471-87, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Rogers, J.H. & Wang, P., 1990. "Sources of Fluctuations in Relative Prices: Evidence from High Inflation Countries," Papers 12-90-2, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
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  16. Huizinga, John, 1987. "An empirical investigation of the long-run behavior of real exchange rates," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 149-214, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Stockman, A.C., 1988. "Real Exchange Rate Variability Under Pegged And Floating Nominal Exchange Rate Systems: An Equilibrium Theory," RCER Working Papers 128, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
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  21. Ahmed, Shaghil & Ickes, Barry W. & Ping Wang & Byung Sam Yoo, 1993. "International Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 335-59, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  22. Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1993. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 644-52, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  24. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-73, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  25. Grilli, Vittorio & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1991. "Nominal exchange rate regimes and the real exchange rate : Evidence from the United States and Great Britain, 1885-1986," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 191-212, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  28. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  29. Gordon, David B & Leeper, Eric M, 1994. "The Dynamic Impacts of Monetary Policy: An Exercise in Tentative Identification," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(6), pages 1228-47, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  30. Kenneth Rogoff, 1992. "Traded Goods Consumption Smoothing and the Random Walk Behavior of the Real Exchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 4119, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  31. Edison, Hali J. & Pauls, B. Dianne, 1993. "A re-assessment of the relationship between real exchange rates and real interest rates: 1974-1990," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 165-187, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  32. Mussa, Michael, 1986. "Nominal exchange rate regimes and the behavior of real exchange rates: Evidence and implications," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 117-214, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  33. Charles Engel, 1991. "Is real exchange rate variability caused by relative price changes? An empirical investigation," Research Working Paper 91-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Mark S Astley & Anthony Garratt, . "Exchange rates and prices: sources of sterling real exchange rate fluctuations 1973-94," Bank of England working papers 85, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  2. Weber, Axel A., 1997. "Sources of Purchasing Power Disparities Between the G3-Economies," Discussion Paper Serie B 419, University of Bonn, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  3. Menzie David Chinn & Jaewoo Lee, 2002. "Current Account and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics in the G-7 Countries," IMF Working Papers 02/130, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Jaanus Raim, 2004. "The Alternative to the Existing System of the Concepts about Purchasing Power Parity Deviations . Derived from the Estonian Experience," Working Papers 115, School of Economics and Business Administration, Tallinn University of Technology. [Downloadable!]
  5. John H. Rogers, 1998. "Monetary shocks and real exchange rates," International Finance Discussion Papers 612, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  6. Menzie Chinn, 1995. "Whither the Yen? Implications of an intertemporal model of the Yen/Dollar rate," International Finance 9508001, EconWPA, revised 28 Aug 1995. [Downloadable!]
  7. Charles Engel, 1996. "Long-Run PPP May Not Hold After All," NBER Working Papers 5646, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Amalia Morales-Zumaquero & Simon Sosvilla-Rivero, . "Structural Breaks in Volatility: Evidence from the OECD Real Exchange Rates," Working Papers 2004-22, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Selahattin Dibooglu & Faik Koray, 2001. "The Behavior of the Real Exchange Rate Under Fixed and Floating Exchange Rate Regimes," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 123-143, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Kenneth A. Froot & Michael Kim & Kenneth Rogoff, 1995. "The Law of One Price Over 700 Years," NBER Working Papers 5132, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. John T. Cuddington & Hong Liang, 1998. "Commodity Price Volatility Across Exchange Rate Regimes," International Finance 9802003, EconWPA, revised 11 May 1998. [Downloadable!]
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