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Sources of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations in Central and Eastern Europe – Temporary or Permanent?

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  • Agnieszka Stazka

Abstract

This paper investigates, using the SVAR model of Clarida and Gali (1994), the sources of real exchange rate fluctuations in eight Central and East European new EU member states. Theoretically, one should expect the real exchange rates of Exchange Rate Mechanism II participants to be primarily driven by temporary shocks and those of ERM II “outs” by permanent shocks. Our results reveal an opposite pattern. We conclude that the sources of real exchange rate movements – and the usefulness of nominal exchange rates as shock absorbing instruments – were not the decisive factor behind these countries’ decisions concerning the ERM II participation.

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File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/WP/WP-CESifo_Working_Papers/wp-cesifo-2006/wp-cesifo-2006-12/cesifo1_wp1876.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 1876.

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Date of creation: 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1876

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Keywords: exchange rate fluctuations; Central and Eastern Europe; ERM II; SVAR;

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References

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Cited by:
  1. K. Rajmund MIRDALA, 2012. "Sources Of Exchange Rate Volatility In The European Transition Economies. Effects Of Economic Crisis Revealed," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 7(3(21)/ Fa), pages 270-282.
  2. Rajmund MIRDALA, 2009. "Shocking Aspects Of Monetary Integration (Svar Approach)," Journal of Applied Research in Finance Bi-Annually, ASERS Publishing, vol. 0(1), pages 52-62, June.
  3. Lubos Komarek & Michal Skorepa, 2013. "Sources of Asymmetric Shocks: The Exchange Rate or Other Culprits?," Working Papers 2013/12, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  4. Mirdala, Rajmund, 2009. "Interest rate transmission mechanism of the monetary policy in the selected EMU candidate countries (SVAR approach)," MPRA Paper 14072, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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