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Sources of exchange rate volatility in the european transition economies (effects of economic crisis revealed)

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  • Mirdala, Rajmund

Abstract

Negative macroeconomic performance issues represent one of the key effects of crisis period. Due to many economic crisis related side effects countries became more vulnerable to various types of endogenous and exogenous shocks. Exchange rates of the European transition economies became much more volatile as a result of increased uncertainty on the financial markets as well as changed behavior of structural shocks affecting exchange rates path during the crisis period. As a result we expect a contribution of the structural shocks to the exchange rates path has changed. In the paper we analyze sources of exchange rate fluctuations in the European transition economies. We estimate the contribution of nominal, supply and demand shocks to NEER and REER variability implementing SVAR methodology. Long run restrictions are applied to unrestricted VAR model to identify structural shocks. Variance decomposition and impulse-response functions are computed for each individual country for the period 2000-2007 and 2000-2011. Comparison of results for both periods is crucial for identification of the role of economic crisis in determining exchange rate volatility in the European transition economies.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 42060.

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Date of creation: Sep 2012
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Publication status: Published in Journal of Applied Economic Sciences 3.7(2012): pp. 270-282
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:42060

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Keywords: exchange rates; exogenous structural shocks; structural vector autoregression; variance decomposition; impulse-response function;

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  1. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Horváth, Roman, 2008. "Volatility of exchange rates in selected new EU members: Evidence from daily data," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 103-118, March.
  2. Frait , Jan & Komárek, Luboš, 2001. "REAL Exchange rate trends in transitional countries," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 596, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
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  7. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2003. "Similarity of supply and demand shocks between the euro area and the CEECs," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 313-334, September.
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  9. Agnieszka Stazka, 2006. "Sources of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations in Central and Eastern Europe – Temporary or Permanent?," CESifo Working Paper Series 1876, CESifo Group Munich.
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  11. Ali M. Kutan & Selahattin Dibooglu, 1998. "Sources of real and nominal exchange rate fluctuations in transition economies," Working Papers 1998-022, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
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  13. Nabil Ben Arfa, 2009. "Analysis of Shocks Affecting Europe: EMU and some Central and Eastern Acceding Countries," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 56(1), pages 21-38, March.
  14. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:6:y:2007:i:32:p:1-10 is not listed on IDEAS
  15. Mirdala, Rajmund, 2012. "Macroeconomic Aspects of Real Exchange Rate Volatility in the Central European Countries," MPRA Paper 40910, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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Cited by:
  1. Mirdala, Rajmund, 2013. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Domestic Prices under Different Exchange Rate Regimes," MPRA Paper 53209, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Rajmund MIRDALA, 2012. "Interest Rates Determination And Crisis Puzzle (Empirical Evidence From The European Transition Economies)," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences Quarterly, ASERS Publishing, vol. 0(4), pages 418-436, December.

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