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Sources of real and nominal exchange rate fluctuations in transition economies

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  • Ali M. Kutan
  • Selahattin Dibooglu

Abstract

This paper provides an empirical inquiry into the sources of movements of the real and nominal exchange rates in Hungary and Poland for during the 1990:01-1998:02 period. We decompose the exchange rate movements into those attributable to real and nominal shocks, we find that (1) nominal shocks have played a significant role in Poland, but not in Hungary, in explaining real exchange rate movements during the transition period. Instead, real shocks have dominated real exchange movements in Hungary and (2) nominal shocks explain almost all of nominal exchange rate movements in Poland and a sizable portion of nominal exchange rate movements in Hungary. These results are compared with the findings of Lastrapes (1992) and Enders and Lee (1997) for industrial countries. Finally, policy implications of the empirical results as well their lessons for modeling exchange rates in transition economies are discussed.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its series Working Papers with number 1998-022.

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Date of creation: 1998
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Publication status: Published in Journal of Compartive Economics as "Sources of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations in Transition Economies: Evidence from Hungary and Poland."
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:1998-022

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Keywords: Poland ; Hungary ; Econometric models;

References

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  1. Stockman, Alan C, 1980. "A Theory of Exchange Rate Determination," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(4), pages 673-98, August.
  2. Portes, Richard, 1994. "Transformation Traps," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(426), pages 1178-89, September.
  3. Lucjan T. Orlowski, 1996. "The Path of Exchange Rates in the Polish Economic Transformation," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0090, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
  4. Begg, David, 1998. "Pegging Out: Lessons from the Czech Exchange Rate Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 1956, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Szapary, Gyorgy & Jakab, Zoltan M., 1998. "Exchange Rate Policy in Transition Economies: The Case of Hungary," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 691-717, December.
  6. Lastrapes, William D, 1992. "Sources of Fluctuations in Real and Nominal Exchange Rates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(3), pages 530-39, August.
  7. Lionel Halpern & Charles Wyplosz, 1996. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies," IMF Working Papers 96/125, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Brada, Josef C., 1998. "Introduction: Exchange Rates, Capital Flows, and Commercial Policies in Transition Economies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 613-620, December.
  9. Desai, Padma, 1998. "Macroeconomic Fragility and Exchange Rate Vulnerability: A Cautionary Record of Transition Economies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 621-641, December.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Mirdala, Rajmund, 2012. "Sources of exchange rate volatility in the european transition economies (effects of economic crisis revealed)," MPRA Paper 42060, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Payne, James & Lee, Junsoo & Hofler, Richard, 2005. "Purchasing power parity: Evidence from a transition economy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 665-672, September.
  3. Kuralbayeva, Karlygash & Kutan, Ali M. & Wyzan, Michael L., 2001. "Is Kazakhstan vulnerable to the Dutch disease?," ZEI Working Papers B 29-2001, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn.
  4. Dibooglu, Selahattin & Kutan, Ali M., 2001. "Sources of inflation and output fluctuations in Poland and Hungary: Implications for full membership in the European Union," ZEI Working Papers B 16-2001, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn.
  5. Zenon Kontolemis & Kevin Ross, 2005. "Exchange Rate Fluctuations in the New Member States of the European Union," Macroeconomics 0504015, EconWPA.
  6. Uz, Idil & Ketenci, Natalya, 2008. "Panel analysis of the monetary approach to exchange rates: Evidence from ten new EU members and Turkey," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 57-69, March.
  7. Gilles DUFRENOT & Balazs Egert, 2003. "Real Exchange Rates in Central and Eastern Europe : What Scope for the Underlying Fundamentals?," Development and Comp Systems 0309002, EconWPA.
  8. Bernardina Algieri, 2011. "The Dutch Disease: evidences from Russia," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 243-277, August.

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