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The End of Moderate Inflation in Three Transition Economies?

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Author Info
Josef C. Brada
Ali M. Kutan

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Abstract

This paper examines the moderation of inflation in three transition economies, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland at the end of the 1990s. We argue that the institutions for the conduct of monetary policy in these countries were relatively weak and that monetary policy was unsupported by fiscal policy and hampered by multiple objectives. Using a VAR model of inflation, we show that, under a variety of assumptions, foreign prices and the persistence of inflation were the key determinants of inflation in these countries. From this finding we conclude that the moderation of inflation in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland was due largely to the decline in import prices from 1997 on, and thus it is likely be a temporary phenomenon.

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Paper provided by William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School in its series William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series with number 433.

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Date of creation: 01 Jan 2002
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Handle: RePEc:wdi:papers:2001-433

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Related research
Keywords: monetary and fiscal policy; transition economies; moderate inflation and inflation targeting;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
P2 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Systems and Transition Economies
E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  2. Hafer, R W & Kutan, A M, 1997. "More Evidence on the Money-Output Relationship," Economic Inquiry, Oxford University Press, vol. 35(1), pages 48-58, January.
  3. Gottschalk, Jan & Moore, David, 2001. "Implementing Inflation Targeting Regimes: The Case of Poland," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 24-39, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1993. "The Uncertain Unit Root in Real GNP," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(1), pages 264-72, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Paul R. Masson, 1997. "The Scope for Inflation Targeting in Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 97/130, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Dornbusch, Rudiger & Fischer, Stanley, 1993. "Moderate Inflation," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 7(1), pages 1-44, January.
    Other versions:
  7. Canova, Fabio, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 475-512, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. DeJong, D.N. & Whiteman, C.H., 1991. "The Case for Trend-Stationarity is Stronger than we Thought," Working Papers 91-05, University of Iowa, Department of Economics.
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  9. Lucjan T Orlowski, 2005. "Monetary Convergence of the EU Candidates to the Euro: A Theoretical Framework and Policy Implications," Macroeconomics 0501032, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  10. Ball, Laurence, 1994. "Credible Disinflation with Staggered Price-Setting," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 282-89, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. DeJong, David N. & Whiteman, Charles H., 1991. "Reconsidering 'trends and random walks in macroeconomic time series'," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 221-254, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Hawkins, Robert G & Macaluso, Donald, 1977. "The Avoidance of Restrictive Monetary Policies in Host Countries by Multinational Firms," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 9(4), pages 562-71, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. DeJong, David N. & Nankervis, John C. & Savin, N. E. & Whiteman, Charles H., 1992. "The power problems of unit root test in time series with autoregressive errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 323-343. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. William J. McDonough, 1997. "A framework for the pursuit of price stability," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Aug, pages 1-7. [Downloadable!]
  18. Szapary, Gyorgy & Jakab, Zoltan M., 1998. "Exchange Rate Policy in Transition Economies: The Case of Hungary," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 691-717, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Desai, Padma, 1998. "Macroeconomic Fragility and Exchange Rate Vulnerability: A Cautionary Record of Transition Economies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 621-641, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Wachtel, Paul & Korhonen, Iikka, 2004. "Observations on disinflation in transition economies," BOFIT Discussion Papers 5/2004, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
  2. Ekaterina Vostroknutova, 2003. "Polish Stabilization: What can we learn from the I(2) Cointegration Analysis?," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 177-198, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Kim, Byung-Yeon, 2001. "Determinants of Inflation in Poland: A Structural Cointegration Approach," BOFIT Discussion Papers 16/2001, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
  4. Ekaterina VOSTROKNUTOVA, 2003. "Shock Therapy? An I (2) Cointegration Analysis of the Russian Stabilization," Economics Working Papers ECO2003/16, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
  5. Peter Backé & Jarko Fidrmuc & Thomas Reininger & Franz Schardax, 2002. "Price Dynamics in Central and Eastern European EU Accession Countries," Working Papers 61, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Boriss Siliverstovs & Olena Bilan, 2005. "Modelling Inflation Dynamics in Transition Economies: The Case of Ukraine," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 476, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Komulainen, Tuomas & Pirttilä, Jukka, 2000. "Fiscal Explanations for Inflation: Any Evidence from Transition Economies?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 11/2000, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Dvorsky, Sandra, 2000. "Measuring Central Bank Independence in Selected Transition Countries and the Disinflation Process," BOFIT Discussion Papers 13/2000, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
  9. Lena Malesevic-Perovic, 2009. "Cointegration Approach to Analysing Inflation in Croatia," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 33(2), pages 201-218. [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-19.

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