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Is Kazakhstan vulnerable to the Dutch disease?

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Author Info

  • Kuralbayeva, Karlygash
  • Kutan, Ali M.
  • Wyzan, Michael L.

Abstract

Kazakhstan possesses extensive natural resources reserves that are expected to yield significant export revenues. Since Kazakhstan’s attaining independence in 1991, the composition of exports has changed in favor of energy-related sectors. In the context of such evidence and considerable expected future revenues, many researchers have pointed to the Dutch Disease question. This paper examines whether Kazakhstan is vulnerable to this condition. Using an extended version of the Balassa-Samuelson model including a terms-of-trade effect, we find evidence that changes in the terms of trade had a significant effect on the real exchange rate after 1996, providing evidence of the Dutch Disease. --

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn in its series ZEI Working Papers with number B 29-2001.

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Date of creation: 2001
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:zeiwps:b292001

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Related research

Keywords: Dutch Disease; transition; oil; terms of trade; Kazakhstan;

References

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  1. van Wijnbergen, Sweder J G, 1984. "The 'Dutch Disease': A Disease after All?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 94(373), pages 41-55, March.
  2. Brada, Josef C., 1998. "Introduction: Exchange Rates, Capital Flows, and Commercial Policies in Transition Economies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 613-620, December.
  3. Jose De Gregorio & Holger C. Wolf, 1994. "Terms of Trade, Productivity, and the Real Exchange Rate," Working Papers 94-19, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  4. Ali M. Kutan & Selahattin Dibooglu, 1998. "Sources of real and nominal exchange rate fluctuations in transition economies," Working Papers 1998-022, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  5. Lutkepohl, Helmut & Reimers, Hans-Eggert, 1992. "Granger-causality in cointegrated VAR processes The case of the term structure," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 263-268, November.
  6. Davis, Graham A., 1995. "Learning to love the Dutch disease: Evidence from the mineral economies," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 23(10), pages 1765-1779, October.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. J. O. Olusi & M. A. Olagunju, 2005. "The Primary Sectors of the Economy and the Dutch Disease in Nigeria," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 44(2), pages 159-175.
  2. Aziz Hayat & Bahodir Ganiev & Xueli Tang, 2012. "Expectations of future income and real exchange rate movements," Financial Econometics Series 2012_05, Deakin University, Faculty of Business and Law, School of Accounting, Economics and Finance.
  3. Hayat, Aziz & Ganiev, Bahodir & Tang, Xueli, 2013. "Expectations of future income and real exchange rate movements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1274-1285.
  4. Khiabani, Nasser, 2010. "How Important are Oil and Money Shocks in Explaining Housing Market Fluctuations in an Oil-exporting Country?: Evidence from Iran," MPRA Paper 34041, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Mar 2011.
  5. Padma Desai, 2006. "Why Is Russian GDP Growth Slowing?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 342-347, May.
  6. Hassan Suleiman & Zahid Muhammad, 2011. "The real exchange rate of an oil exporting economy: Empirical evidence from Nigeria," FIW Working Paper series 072, FIW.
  7. Bernardina Algieri, 2011. "The Dutch Disease: evidences from Russia," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 243-277, August.
  8. Pomfret, Richard, 2007. "Distortions to Agricultural Incentives in Kazakhstan," Agricultural Distortions Working Paper 48360, World Bank.
  9. Frey, Daniel & Frey, Miriam & Wieslhuber, Carmen, 2013. "Do natural resources define convergence clubs? Empirical evidence from the Kazakh regions," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 404-414.
  10. Oskenbayev, Yessengali & Yilmaz, Mesut & Abdulla, Kanat, 2013. "Resource concentration, institutional quality and the natural resource curse," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 254-270.
  11. Heidelbach, Olaf, 2007. "Efficiency of selected risk management instruments: An empirical analysis of risk reduction in Kazakhstani crop production," Studies on the Agricultural and Food Sector in Central and Eastern Europe, Leib­niz Institute of Agricultural Development in Central and Eastern Europe (IAMO), volume 40, number 92323.
  12. Balázs Égert & Carol S. Leonard, 2006. "The Dutch Disease in Kazakhstan: An Empirical Investigation," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2.
  13. Oskenbayev, Yessengali & Karimov, Aziz, 2013. "Is Kazakhstan vulnerable to natural resource curse?," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

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