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Nominal and real stochastic convergence within transition economies and to the European Union: Evidence from panel data

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  • Kutan, Ali M.
  • Yigit, Taner M.

Abstract

This paper investigates the issue of real and nominal economic convergence of transition economies in two distinct ways: i) within their own groups as in Koèenda (2001) and ii) to the European Union (EU). We extend Koèenda’s study not only by using a more stable period (post-93) but also by employing a more recent panel estimation approach developed by Im, Pesaran, and Shin (IPS) (1997), which offers less restrictive assumptions about convergence by allowing heterogeneity in the convergence rates than previous panel unit root techniques. Relaxing the assumption of homogeneity in convergence rates yields less convergence in price level and money supply variables than reported by Koèenda. Again using the IPS method, we extend the investigation to examine the convergence of the first and second round candidate economies to EU standards. We find that the first-round candidates have made significant progress in monetary policy convergence with respect to EU and there is significant real convergence between the first round candidate economies and EU, but not for the second round candidate countries. The results have important implications for full EU membership preparations by these countries, including the choice of an optimal interim exchange rate policy. --

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn in its series ZEI Working Papers with number B 21-2002.

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Date of creation: 2002
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:zeiwps:b212002

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  1. Kutan, Ali M. & Brada, Josef C., 1999. "The evolution of monetary policy in transition economies," ZEI Working Papers B 19-1999, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn.
  2. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Iikka Korhonen, 2003. "Similarity of Supply and Demand Shocks Between the Euro Area and the CEECs," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 77, Royal Economic Society.
  3. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
  4. Brada, Josef C. & Kutan, Ali M., 2001. "The convergence of monetary policy between candidate countries and the European Union," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 215-231, September.
  5. Dibooglu, Selahattin & Kutan, Ali M., 2001. "Sources of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations in Transition Economies: The Case of Poland and Hungary," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 257-275, June.
  6. Richards, Anthony J. & Tersman, Gunnar H. R., 1996. "Growth, Nontradables, and Price Convergence in the Baltics," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 121-145, October.
  7. Desai, Padma, 1998. "Macroeconomic Fragility and Exchange Rate Vulnerability: A Cautionary Record of Transition Economies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 621-641, December.
  8. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Reininger, Thomas & Backé, Peter & Schardax, Franz, 2002. "Price Dynamics in Central and Eastern European EU Accession," Working Papers 61, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  9. Wu, Jhy-Lin & Chen, Show-Lin, 2001. " Mean Reversion of Interest Rates in the Eurocurrency Market," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 63(4), pages 459-73, September.
  10. Brada, Josef C., 1998. "Introduction: Exchange Rates, Capital Flows, and Commercial Policies in Transition Economies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 613-620, December.
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Cited by:
  1. Herrmann, Sabine & Jochem, Axel, 2005. "Determinants of current account developments in the central and east European EU member states - consequences for the enlargement of the euro area," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,32, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  2. Lucjan T Orlowski, 2005. "Monetary Policy Adjustments on the Final Passage towards the Euro," Macroeconomics 0503022, EconWPA.
  3. Iikka Korhonen & Jarko Fidrmuc, 2003. "The euro goes East. Implications of the 2000-2002 economic slowdown for synchronisation of business cycles between the euro area and CEEs," Macroeconomics 0305007, EconWPA.
  4. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2003. "Similarity of supply and demand shocks between the euro area and the CEECs," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 313-334, September.
  5. Lucjan Orlowski & Krzyzstof Rybinski, 2005. "Implications of ERM2 for Poland’s Monetary Policy," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp802, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  6. Sabine Herrmann & Axel Jochem, 2003. "Real and nominal convergence in the central and east European accession countries," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 38(6), pages 323-327, November.
  7. Lucjan T. Orlowski, 2005. "Targeting Relative Inflation Forecast as Monetary Policy Framework for Adopting the Euro," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp754, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  8. Aslan, Alper, 2008. "Türkiye’de Suç Oranları Sürekliliğinin Analizi," MPRA Paper 10610, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. FE, Doukouré Charles, 2010. "Réduction de Droits de Douane et Convergence Réelle dans l'UEMOA
    [Tariffs Reduction and Real Convergence in WAEMU]
    ," MPRA Paper 26763, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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