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How Much of the Macroeconomic Variation in Eastern Europe is Attributable to External Shocks?

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  • Bartosz Maćkowiak

    ()
    (Faculty of Economics and Business Studies, Humboldt University Berlin, Spandauer Strasse 1, 10178 Berlin, Germany.)

Abstract

We decompose by origin the sources of the variation in real aggregate output and aggregate price level in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland. We find that a sizable fraction of the variation is attributable to external shocks, especially so for aggregate price level. We show that euroarea interest rate shocks can account for a significant fraction of the external spillover effects. We conclude that theoretical models of advanced transition economies and policy rules for these economies should feature a prominent role for external shocks. Comparative Economic Studies (2006) 48, 523–544. doi:10.1057/palgrave.ces.8100143

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Article provided by Palgrave Macmillan in its journal Comparative Economic Studies.

Volume (Year): 48 (2006)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
Pages: 523-544

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Handle: RePEc:pal:compes:v:48:y:2006:i:3:p:523-544

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Cited by:
  1. Katarzyna Kubiszewska, 2013. "Economic Crisis in Croatia," Oeconomia Copernicana, Polskie Towarzystwo Ekonomiczne Oddzial w Toruniu, Wydzial Nauk Ekonomicznych i Zarzadzania UMK, vol. 2, pages 57-72.
  2. Slavov, Slavi T., 2008. "Measuring and modeling the effects of G-3 exchange rate fluctuations on small open economies: A natural experiment," Economic Systems, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 253-273, September.
  3. Aleksandra Halka & Grzegorz Szafrański, 2014. "What common factors are driving inflation in CEE countries?," EcoMod2014, EcoMod 6977, EcoMod.
  4. Martin Feldkircher, 2013. "A Global Macro Model for Emerging Europe," Working Papers, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank) 185, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).

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