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Determinants of current account developments in the central and east European EU member states – consequences for the enlargement of the euro area

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Author Info
Herrmann, Sabine
Jochem, Axel

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Abstract

The current accounts of most EU member states in central and eastern Europe have been showing growing deficits in recent years. According to panel estimates the deficits can be attributed primarily to factors characteristic for the stage of development, ie the relative income level and high capital building. The positive impact of a closing income gap, however, is largely compensated by real appreciation. The net effect of government budget deficits is rather small, since they are mostly financed by private saving. Further integration of the financial sector is likely to improve the current accounts. Although the current account positions do not require fundamental policy reversals, there are clear risks of exchange rate adjustments that should be reduced before entering the euro area.

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Paper provided by Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre in its series Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies with number 2005,32.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdp1:4226

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Keywords: current account new EU member countries catching-up process

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Campbell, John Y. & Hilscher, Jens & Szilagyi, Jan, 2005. "In search of distress risk," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,27, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Philip M. Bodman, 1995. "National Savings And Domestic Investment In The Long Term: Some Time Series Evidence From The Oecd," International Economic Journal, Korean International Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 37-60, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Hamerle, Alfred & Liebig, Thilo & Scheule, Harald, 2004. "Forecasting Credit Portfolio Risk," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2004,01, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  4. Koetter, Michael & Bos, Jaap W. B. & Heid, Frank & Kool, Clemens J. M. & Kolari, James W. & Porath, Daniel, 2005. "Accounting for distress in bank mergers," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2005,09, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Herrmann, Sabine & Winkler, Adalbert, 2008. "Financial markets and the current account – emerging Europe versus emerging Asia," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2008,05, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2008-10-7.

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