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The Global Side of the Investment-Savings Puzzle

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  • Byrne, Joseph P.
  • Fiess, Norbert
  • Fazio, Giorgio

Abstract

In this paper we re-examine the long standing and puzzling correlation between national savings and investment in industrial countries. We apply an econometric methodology that allows us to separate idiosyncratic correlation at the country level from correlation at the global level. In a major break with the existing literature, we find no evidence of a long run relationship in the idiosyncratic components of savings and investment. We also find that the global components in savings and investments comove, indicating that they react to shocks of a global nature.

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File URL: http://repo.sire.ac.uk/handle/10943/35
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE) in its series SIRE Discussion Papers with number 2008-22.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:edn:sirdps:35

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Keywords: Savings; Investment; Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle; Panel Nonstationarity; Principal Components;

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  1. Peter Pedroni, 2004. "Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic and Finite Sample Properties of Pooled Time Series Tests with an Application to the PPP Hypothesis," Department of Economics Working Papers 2004-15, Department of Economics, Williams College.
  2. Alan C. Stockman & Linda L. Tesar, 1991. "Tastes and technology in a two-country model of the business cycle: explaining international co-movements," Working Paper 9019, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  3. Westphal, Uwe, 1983. "'Domestic saving and international capital movements in the long run and the short run' by M. Feldstein," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(1-2), pages 157-159.
  4. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1991. "Real Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 797-818, September.
  5. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2002. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 191-221, January.
  6. Alan M. Taylor, 1994. "Domestic Saving and International Capital Flows Reconsidered," NBER Working Papers 4892, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2001. "A Panic Attack on Unit Roots and Cointegration," Economics Working Paper Archive 469, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
  8. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  9. Tarlok Singh, 2007. "Intertemporal Optimizing Models Of Trade And Current Account Balance: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(1), pages 25-64, 02.
  10. Tesar, Linda L., 1991. "Savings, investment and international capital flows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-2), pages 55-78, August.
  11. Christian Gengenbach & Franz C. Palm & Jean-Pierre Urbain, 2006. "Cointegration Testing in Panels with Common Factors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(s1), pages 683-719, December.
  12. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1992. "Dynamics of the trade balance and the terms of trade: the S-curve," Working Paper 9211, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  13. Jang, Myoung Jin & Shin, Dong Wan, 2005. "Comparison of panel unit root tests under cross sectional dependence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 12-17, October.
  14. Maddala, G S & Wu, Shaowen, 1999. " A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 631-52, Special I.
  15. Bohn, Henning, 2007. "Are stationarity and cointegration restrictions really necessary for the intertemporal budget constraint?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 1837-1847, October.
  16. Tobin, James, 1983. "'Domestic saving and international capital movements in the long run and the short run' by M. Feldstein," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(1-2), pages 153-156.
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Cited by:
  1. Joseph P. Byrne & Norbert Fiess, 2011. "International capital flows to emerging and developing countries: national and global determinants," Working Papers 2011_01, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
  2. Joseph P. Byrne & Giorgio Fazio & Norbert Fiess, 2010. "Primary commodity prices: co-movements, common factors and fundamentals," Working Papers 2010_27, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
  3. Costantini, Mauro & Gutierrez, Luciano, 2013. "Capital mobility and global factor shocks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 120(3), pages 513-515.
  4. Bangake, Chrysost & Eggoh, Jude C., 2012. "Pooled Mean Group estimation on international capital mobility in African countries," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 7-17.

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