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The Global Dimension to Fiscal Sustainability

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  • Joseph P. Byrne
  • Norbert Fiess
  • Ronald MacDonald

Abstract

This paper examines the issue of fiscal sustainability in emerging market countries and industrial countries. We highlight the importance of the time series properties of the primary surplus and debt, and find evidence of a positive long run relationship. Consequently we emphasise, that especially for emerging markets, it is important to recognise the implications of global capital market shocks for fiscal sustainability, a relationship which has hitherto been ignored in the empirical literature. Using a factor model we demonstrate that the relationship between deficit and debt is conditional upon a global factor and we suggest that this global factor is related to worldwide liquidity. We also demonstrate that this acts as a constraint on emerging market economies’ fiscal policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Joseph P. Byrne & Norbert Fiess & Ronald MacDonald, 2008. "The Global Dimension to Fiscal Sustainability," Working Papers 2008_10, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    • Handle: RePEc:gla:glaewp:2008_10
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    3. Escobari Diego & Mollick André Varella, 2013. "Output growth and unexpected government expenditures," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 13(1), pages 1-33, September.
    4. Paniagua, Jordi & Sapena, Juan & Tamarit, Cecilio, 2017. "Fiscal sustainability in EMU countries: A continued fiscal commitment?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 85-97.
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    7. María del Carmen Ramos-Herrera & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2020. "Fiscal Sustainability in Aging Societies: Evidence from Euro Area Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-20, December.
    8. Gerdie Everaert & Freddy Heylen & Ruben Schoonackers, 2015. "Fiscal policy and TFP in the OECD: measuring direct and indirect effects," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(2), pages 605-640, September.
    9. Peterson K. Ozili, 2022. "Sustainability and Sustainable Development Research around the World," Managing Global Transitions, University of Primorska, Faculty of Management Koper, vol. 20(3 (Fall)), pages 259-293.
    10. Méndez-Vizcaíno, Juan Camilo & Moreno-Arias, Nicolás, 2023. "Constraints or Opportunities?: Labor Informality and Public Investment in Shaping Debt Limits," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 13049, Inter-American Development Bank.
    11. Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Soon, Siew-Voon & Lau, Evan, 2017. "Fiscal sustainability in an emerging market economy: When does public debt turn bad?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 99-113.
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    13. Ozili, Peterson K, 2022. "Sustainability and sustainable development research around the world," MPRA Paper 115767, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Markus Reischmann, 2016. "Empirical Studies on Public Debt and Fiscal Transfers," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 63.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal Policy; Sustainability.;

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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