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The Global Dimension to Fiscal Sustainability

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  • Joseph P. Byrne
  • Norbert Fiess
  • Ronald MacDonald

Abstract

This paper examines the issue of fiscal sustainability in emerging market countries and industrial countries. We highlight the importance of the time series properties of the primary surplus and debt, and find evidence of a positive long run relationship. Consequently we emphasise, that especially for emerging markets, it is important to recognise the implications of global capital market shocks for fiscal sustainability, a relationship which has hitherto been ignored in the empirical literature. Using a factor model we demonstrate that the relationship between deficit and debt is conditional upon a global factor and we suggest that this global factor is related to worldwide liquidity. We also demonstrate that this acts as a constraint on emerging market economies’ fiscal policy.

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Paper provided by Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow in its series Working Papers with number 2008_10.

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Date of creation: Mar 2008
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Handle: RePEc:gla:glaewp:2008_10

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Keywords: Fiscal Policy; Sustainability.;

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Cited by:
  1. Jérôme Héricourt & Sandra Poncet, 2013. "Exchange Rate Volatility, Financial Constraints and Trade: Empirical Evidence from Chinese Firms," CESifo Working Paper Series 4303, CESifo Group Munich.
  2. Niklas Potrafke & Markus Reischmann, 2012. "Fiscal Equalization Schemes and Fiscal Sustainability," CESifo Working Paper Series 3948, CESifo Group Munich.
  3. Escobari Diego & Mollick André Varella, 2013. "Output growth and unexpected government expenditures," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 13(1), pages 33, September.
  4. Niklas Potrafke & Markus Reischmann, 2014. "Fiscal Transfers and Fiscal Sustainability," CESifo Working Paper Series 4716, CESifo Group Munich.

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