Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models
AbstractIn this paper we develop some econometric theory for factor models of large dimensions. The focus is the determination of the number of factors, which is an unresolved issue in the rapidly growing literature on multifactor models. We propose some panel C(p) criteria and show that the number of factors can be consistently estimated using the criteria. The theory is developed under the framework of large cross-sections (N) and large time dimensions (T). No restriction is imposed on the relation between N and T. Simulations show that the proposed criteria yield almost precise estimates of the number of factors for configurations of the panel data encountered in practice.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Boston College Department of Economics in its series Boston College Working Papers in Economics with number 440.
Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: 03 Apr 2000
Date of revision:
Publication status: forthcoming, Econometrica
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Boston College, 140 Commonwealth Avenue, Chestnut Hill MA 02467 USA
Web page: http://fmwww.bc.edu/EC/
More information through EDIRC
Factor analysis; asset pricing; principal components; model selection;
Other versions of this item:
- Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2002. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 191-221, January.
- Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2000. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1504, Econometric Society.
- C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
- C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
- C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2000-04-17 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-2000-04-17 (Econometrics)
- NEP-FMK-2000-04-17 (Financial Markets)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- John H. Cochrane, 1999.
"New Facts in Finance,"
NBER Working Papers
7169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2000.
"The Generalized Dynamic-Factor Model: Identification And Estimation,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 82(4), pages 540-554, November.
- Forni, Mario & Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1999. "The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model: Identification and Estimation," CEPR Discussion Papers 2338, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Lucrezia Reichlin & Marco Lippi, 2000. "The generalised dynamic factor model: identification and estimation," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10143, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Backus, David & Foresi, Silverio & Mozumdar, Abon & Wu, Liuren, 2001.
"Predictable changes in yields and forward rates,"
Journal of Financial Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 281-311, March.
- Connor, Gregory & Korajczyk, Robert A., 1986. "Performance measurement with the arbitrage pricing theory : A new framework for analysis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 373-394, March.
- Forni, Mario & Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2000. "Reference Cycles: The NBER Methodology Revisited," CEPR Discussion Papers 2400, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Geweke, John F & Meese, Richard, 1981.
"Estimating Regression Models of Finite but Unknown Order,"
International Economic Review,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 22(1), pages 55-70, February.
- Geweke, John & Meese, Richard, 1981. "Estimating regression models of finite but unknown order," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 162-162, May.
- Lewbel, Arthur, 1991. "The Rank of Demand Systems: Theory and Nonparametric Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 711-30, May.
- Forni, Mario & Lippi, Marco, 2000.
"The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model: Representation Theory,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
2509, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Forni, Mario & Lippi, Marco, 2001. "The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model: Representation Theory," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(06), pages 1113-1141, December.
- Ghysels, E. & Ng, S., 1996.
"A Semi-Parametric Factor Model for Interest Rates,"
Cahiers de recherche
9612, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Eric Ghysels & Serena Ng, 1996. "A Semi-Parametric Factor Model for Interest Rates," CIRANO Working Papers 96s-18, CIRANO.
- Ghysels, E. & Ng, S., 1996. "A Semi-Parametric Factor Model for Interest Rates," Cahiers de recherche 9612, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1999.
NBER Working Papers
7023, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Stephen G. Donald, 1997. "Inference Concerning the Number of Factors in a Multivariate Nonparametric Relationship," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(1), pages 103-132, January.
- Schwert, G William, 1989.
"Tests for Unit Roots: A Monte Carlo Investigation,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 7(2), pages 147-59, April.
- Gregory, Allan W. & Head, Allen C., 1999.
"Common and country-specific fluctuations in productivity, investment, and the current account,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 423-451, December.
- Allan W. Gregory & Allen C. Head, 1996. "Common and Country-specific Fluctuations in Productivity, Investment, and the Current Account," Working Papers 931, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- Allan W. Gregory & Allen C. Head & Jacques Raynauld, 1994.
"Measuring World Business Cycles,"
902, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- Forni, Mario & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1998.
"Let's Get Real: A Factor Analytical Approach to Disaggregated Business Cycle Dynamics,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(3), pages 453-73, July.
- Mario Forni & Lucrezia Reichlin, 1998. "Let's get real: a factor analytical approach to disaggregated business cycle dynamics," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10147, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Forni, Mario & Lippi, Marco, 1997. "Aggregation and the Microfoundations of Dynamic Macroeconomics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288008.
- Thomas J. Sargent & Christopher A. Sims, 1977.
"Business cycle modeling without pretending to have too much a priori economic theory,"
55, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS program to estimate observable index model from Sargent-Sims(1977)," Statistical Software Components RTZ00126, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Ross, Stephen A., 1976. "The arbitrage theory of capital asset pricing," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 341-360, December.
- Connor, Gregory & Korajczyk, Robert A, 1993. " A Test for the Number of Factors in an Approximate Factor Model," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1263-91, September.
- Cragg, John G. & Donald, Stephen G., 1997. "Inferring the rank of a matrix," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1-2), pages 223-250.
- Gregory Connor and Robert Korajczyk., 1987. "Risk and Return in an Equilibrium APT," Research Program in Finance Working Papers 174, University of California at Berkeley.
- Dhrymes, Phoebus J & Friend, Irwin & Gultekin, N Bulent, 1984. " A Critical Reexamination of the Empirical Evidence on the Arbitrage Pricing Theory," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(2), pages 323-46, June.
- Lehmann, Bruce N. & Modest, David M., 1988. "The empirical foundations of the arbitrage pricing theory," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 213-254, September.
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page. reading lists or Wikipedia pages:
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christopher F Baum).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.